Weekend Preview
He’s back for all your EPL wagering needs…James Kempton with his complete thoughts on the weekend slate including the Manchester Derby
Everton v Arsenal
PK and 2.75 goals
Everton are in the FA Cup Semi Final and that should help the focus of Martinez’s players as not many of them are guaranteed starters in the team. This game should be played at a million miles an hour and will be a great viewing spectacle. I far prefer the overs on the goal line though as who knows what type of performance Arsenal will put in under the pressure they’re under and also on the back of that Barcelona trip.
Chelsea v West Ham United
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.75 goals
West Ham won 2-1 at Upton Park earlier this season but prior to that they had won just one of the previous nineteen meetings of the sides. Will the Hammers have one eye on that upcoming FA Cup Replay against Manchester United? Coach Bilic has already stated that winning the FA Cup is far more important to him than the prospect of Champions League football. The logical bet here is West Ham plus three quarters but given their admitted concentration on the FA Cup make it for small stakes.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Leicester -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Leicester won 1-0 when the sides met earlier this season and all three EPL meetings of the sides over this season and last have gone under 2.5 goals. Leicester are now 10-3-0 against the bottom third and have kept seven clean sheets in those matches whilst Palace are 1-1-8 against the top third and have only scored six goals in that spot. An away win to nil could offer some value whilst if Palace set up defensively this game could be settled by a single goal. This is a real test for the Foxes and I think a point should be viewed as a good result for them.
Watford v Stoke City
Watford -0.25 and 2 goals
Watford won 2-0 at the Britannia Stadium when the sides met back in October and they come into this game on the back of that amazing FA Cup win. Stoke lost last weekend at home to Southampton and Mark Hughes needs to make sure his side don’t freewheel into the summer. Watford are an incredible 1-5-1 against mid third placed sides and I think Stoke would be happy with a point from this tough trip. Give me the draw outright.
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City
West Brom -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The Canaries must have taken great heart from shutting out Man City and earning a point in that goalless draw last weekend. There have been just eighteen goals this season in West Brom’s twelve matches against sides in the bottom third of the table, nine for and nine against. I’m not sure why this line is not set at -0.5 and I’m wary of being lured in on the home team in a game they don’t need to win. I will probably pass on this game but the under does offer some small appeal.
Swansea City v Aston Villa
Swansea -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Have Villa thrown in the towel? It’ll be hard work for them in a game where they won’t have much possession and it’s work that I’m not sure they’re prepared to put in during the final stages of this pitiful campaign. If we compare them to the historically bad Premiership teams of Sunderland 02/03, 05/06 and Derby 07/08 those teams in their final five away games combined earned just two draws, lost thirteen and were out scored 29-7. Away from home until the end of the season I’m always happy to take on Villa if they’re receiving less than a full goal.
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Newcastle -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland have won four straight meetings of these two sides to nil and have won six straight with Newcastle not winning any of the last eight match ups. Should Newcastle stay in the EPL then the appointment of Rafa Benitez could be a master stroke. However, in what is effectively a nine game season to save your EPL status I’d take Big Sam everytime. The Geordies looked improved on Monday night in a nervous game in Leicester so I it’s a tentative lean to the home side despite the trends.
Southampton v Liverpool
Scratch and 2.25 goals
The Saints won 2-1 at Stoke last weekend in what was a great result for Ronald Koeman’s men in what is another fine season for them. It was one apiece at Anfield earlier this season at Anfield but the Reds have happy memories from their Capital One Cup trip to the south coast as they routed the Saints 6-1 back in December. Two successive EPL trips to St Mary’s have seen Liverpool win 2-0 and 3-0 so they make this trip in good heart. A complete pass for me on the match market but I will take a bit of the over 2.25 goals.
Manchester City v Manchester United
Man City -0.75 and 2.5 goals
It was goal less at Old Trafford back in October but prior to that over 2.5 goals was on a 8-2 run in all competitions when the sides meet since August 2011. Man Utd are being berated left, right and centre for their performances so far this season. However, statistically they have the second best record in the league against fellow top third placed sides only behind West Ham. Their 4-3-1 record has been compiled by just conceding seven goals so I’m happy to take United and unders in this spot but the size of my wager will be determined when I see the team news on Sunday.
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth
Spurs -1 and 2.75 goals
Tottenham are fighting hard to win their first title since long before I was born. Last weekend they had a 2-0 cruise control win away at doomed Aston Villa. Bournemouth are safe now after that 3-2 win over Swansea so will they play with extreme freedom or will they start having thoughts of that beach in the summer? Spurs absolutely hammered the Cherries 5-1 when the sides met for the first time this season back in October. Backing Spurs after a Europa League Thursday concerns me a little so I will look to the over 2.75 in what should be a really open and exciting game.
