Round 30
The race for Premiership supremacy continues to heat up but has LC distanced themselves from the competition? Relegation appears to be a four horse race and James Kempton is here to talk about it all for the upcoming weekend
Norwich City v Manchester City
Man City -1 and 2.75 goals
The seven EPL games between the sides since December 2011 have seen a total of thirty eight goals. Those games even included a goalless draw as over 2.5 goals has continually hit, going 6-1. Man City are an incredible 11-1-0 against the bottom third of the EPL and have out scored those opponents 33-6. Please tell me why this line is only City -1? I’m happy to go in big on City in this spot.
Bournemouth v Swansea City
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.25 goals
It was two apiece in Wales back in November and this game is also trending to a stalemate. The strong draw bias here is derived from the fact that Bournemouth are 5-6-3 and Swansea 6-6-3 against fellow bottom half placed sides. A point will suit both sides’ survival ambitions so I lean to the draw outright and under.
Stoke City v Southampton
PK and 2.25 goals
Historical stats are mixed here as the Saints have won two, Stoke have won two, and there have been four draws in the eight meetings of the teams since December 2012. Neither side excel in this spot as Southampton are 3-2-3 and Stoke 3-1-4 against fellow mid third placed sides. Those combined sixteen games have seen just thirty six total goals and interestingly seven of those were in Stoke’s 4-3 win at Everton. On this PK line I favour the home team but would rather take a piece of the outright draw and trust the situational trend to the under.
Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -1 and 2.5 goals
Villa have won just one of the last fifteen league games between the sides. If you factor in Spurs being 11-1-1 against the bottom third sides this season then you can see what a big ask it is for Villa in this match. The Villains are 0-3-8 against the top third sides, scoring seven and conceding twenty six in this spot. Despite those strong trends to the away team I can only back Spurs straight up as I’m concerned about how much that Thursday night trip to Dortmund took out of them where they were absolutely destroyed.
Leicester City v Newcastle United
Leicester -0.75 and 2.5 goals
It was Leicester’s 3-0 win up on Tyneside in November that made people stand up and take notice of the Foxes as serious title challengers. Leicester are 9-3-0 against the bottom third and it’s very important that they keep the back door shut in these types of games. The fact they’ve only conceded eight goals in those twelve games should give them great confidence going against this Newcastle team who’ve scored just seven goals in their fourteen away games this campaign. As long as the inspirational Riyad Mahrez is fit, after that injury scare last time out, I’m happy to take Leicester minus three quarters of a goal. If he doesn’t make the starting line up I’d be very wary of backing the home team.
