Round 28
The soccer gods smile upon us all with a full slate of mid-week fixtures. Let’s call this an appetizer for the weekend’s biggest match in North London that will have major ramifications in the quest to top the table. To give us some clarity James Kempton is back to offer his comprehensive thoughts.
Aston Villa v Everton
Everton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
The last ten EPL meetings have seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals is 13-4 in the last seventeen games including Everton’s 4-0 win at Goodison Park earlier this season. If that trend of plentiful goals continues here then I can’t see anything bar an away win as Villa have thrown the towel in for the season. Can you trust Everton on this line away from home though? I know I can’t!
Bournemouth v Southampton
PK and 2.25 goals
Bournemouth ground out a hard earned point away to Watford on Saturday whilst Southampton should consider themselves a tad unlucky to have lost at home to Chelsea. The recent defensive strength of the Saints makes me want to take the away side here and it should be a similar showing to their recent 1-0 away win at Swansea. They shut Bournemouth out earlier this season and I see them doing the same here. Away team and unders.
Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion
Leicester -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Leicester won 3-2 at the Hawthornes back on Halloween but this will probably be a much tighter and lower scoring encounter. The timing of this game is good for Leicester as they play the night before their title rivals giving them a chance to get points on the board with the home crowd sure to be supportive and loud. The resurgence of West Brom striker Berahino makes me wary of the away dog so it’s another game on the handicap that I urge caution on. However, it’s down from -1 to just -0.75 so I think taking the Foxes will just be about worth the risk.
Norwich City v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Norwich have scored just three goals in the seven EPL meetings of the sides since August 2011 and it’ll come as no surprise that they’ve only gained two points in those games. Chelsea are on such a good run at present that you have to either back them here or pass on the game. I’m a backer as remember this is the Norwich team who recently conceded five goals at home to Liverpool! Those trends all point to the away win so I can’t understand who has backed Norwich on the opening line of Chelsea -1 so I love the Blues in this spot.
Sunderland v Crystal Palace
PK and 2.25 goals
Palace won 4-1 in this game last season and in 2013-14 they earned a goalless draw at the Stadium of Light so you think you’d side with Crystal Palace on the PK line. The recent poor form of Crystal Palace though has seen them earn just one point from their last eight EPL games and leaves them looking nervously over their shoulders towards the relegation zone. It’s not been pretty of late but the Mackems have been fighting hard so I really like Sunderland here in the PK line.
Arsenal v Swansea City
Arsenal -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Arsenal were truly woeful at Old Trafford in their Sunday defeat and if that’s how they play here on in then they have no hope of winning the title. Swansea have a good record in this spot as since their return to the EPL they have won two of four trips to the Emirates in league action and drawn another. Arsenal are struggling to find the net of late so giving up over a full goal offers no appeal at all to me. In fact I will take a bit of the dog as a value play as we saw from their trip to White Hart Lane on Sunday that they can keep pace with the big boys.
Stoke City v Newcastle United
Stoke -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Under 2.5 goals is on a 4-0 run when these sides meet and three of those games went under 1.5 goals so don’t rely on goals flying in during this game. Trusting Newcastle on the road is not for me anymore after that pounding at Chelsea where I was showing a modicum of belief in McLaren’s men. I’m sure despite winning at the weekend at home to doomed Aston Villa that Stoke will want to put in a better showing. The Potters minus a half for me in this game.
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Over 2.5 goals is on a 6-2 run when the sides meet in EPL action so the trends suggest there will be goals. However, there is a better bet you can make here and for me it is a no brainer bet as you should take the home side plus half a goal. In my opinion this should be a PK line as nothing we have seen of late suggest the Hammers will lay down and die for anyone. Yes Spurs have won six in a row but this West Ham side are solid defensively and in Payet they have a player who can unlock any EPL defence.
Liverpool v Manchester City
Scratch and 2.5 goals
I was pleased that Carling Cup Final on Sunday finished one apiece at the end of ninety minutes as it should help us get a better price on the overs for this game. Yes on BTTS and over 2.5 goals is on an incredible 8-0 run when these sides meet in EPL action. Liverpool have scored in the last twenty four meetings of the sides at Anfield in all competitions and despite their rise to EPL prominence City have not won this fixture since May 2003. Give me the goal trends to continue with a slice of over 2.5 goals as the best bet of the game. After that cup win on Sunday do not trust Man City to put in a performance in what could be a huge let down spot.
Manchester United v Watford
Man Utd -0.75 and 2.25 goals
United won 2-1 at Vicarage Road back in November in one of their rare strong road performances this season. Will United just look to grind this one out with a slow turgid performance like they have for much of the season? After that performance on Sunday probably not as LVG seems set to unleash these young bucks. Given the fact Watford just can’t seem to beat the teams in the top third and how this Old Trafford crowd seemingly gets behind their new kids I will take United to get the job done.
