Round 27
The EPL table continues to tighten at the top and bottom as we’re officially into the final third of the grueling season. Our EPL guru James Kempton is here to offer his thoughts and analysis on the best wagering opportunities this weekend
West Ham United v Sunderland
West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals
It was two apiece in the north east back in October but before that under 2.5 goals was 8-4 since November 2008. West Ham are just 4-6-2 against the bottom third so I can’t side with them against a desperate Mackems side giving up three quarters of a goal. I’d lean to the overs on the goal market but in truth I just want to skip this game and get on to the others.
Leicester City v Norwich City
Leicester -1 and 2.75 goals
Leicester are 7-3-0 against the bottom third so surely the lower placed teams will now set up against Leicester as they would for a trip to the Emirates or the Etihad. If teams do sit deep against the Foxes how will they cope? They’ve drawn against both Bournemouth and Aston Villa in recent weeks so have they almost become better set up to play the bigger sides. I think Leicester will win the game but trusting them to cover a full goal line is fraught with danger. The league leaders have kept five cleans sheets though in their last eight league matches so that should give some comfort to those brave enough to give up a full goal.
Southampton v Chelsea
Scratch and 2.25 goals
I watched the Saints’ famous and convincing 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge back in October in the cozy confines of the Monte Carlo Sportsbook in Las Vegas. They’ll be confident of a repeat here but this is a much happier Blues side though that travel to the south coast. The Saints have won five and drawn one of their last six EPL matches and have kept clean sheets in all of those games so off of Pk line I’m happy to take them here. However, the under 2.25 goal line does appeal fractionally more to me.
Stoke City v Aston Villa
Stoke -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Stoke have not performed well of late but they should have Ryan Shawcross back to stiffen up the home backline and the extra week of rest should see an emptying of the treatment table. Under Remy Garde Villa have been very inconsistent as they seem to either fight really hard or just capitulate! Each of their last five EPL defeats, and all of their last six losses on the road, have been by more than one goal. Give me the home team to give Villa a pasting!
Watford v Bournemouth
Watford -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The first meeting of the sides ended 1-1 on the south coast back in October. The Hornets are an outstanding 7-2-2 against sides in the bottom third of the table but Bournemouth have avoided defeat in over half of their EPL games this season. I lean towards the home side but the Cherries have so much more to play for in the grand scheme of things. In truth though this is a very unappealing game from a betting perspective.
West Bromwich Albion v Crystal Palace
Scratch and 2 goals
Palace won the first meeting of the sides 2-0 at Selhurst Park last October and each of the last six meetings of the sides in all competitions have seen at least two goals. Palace are 4-1-2 against mid third placed sides whilst the Baggies are 3-3-3 in the same spot. Those sixteen combined games have seen a total of forty three goals so this goal line of just two goals looks a little skinny. Give me over two goals as the trends suggests that a push is the worst case scenario.
Manchester United v Arsenal
Scratch and 2.25 goals
Arsenal have not won at Old Trafford since September 2006 and the Gunners’ 3-0 win earlier this season ended an eight game unbeaten run for United in this fixture. Against fellow top third opposition this season the stats do not favour the Gunners as much as you’d think as United are 2-3-2 and Arsenal 4-2-2. Those seven United games in this spot have yielded just twelve total with the four at Old Trafford seeing just two goals! Give me unders on the goal market as I sense LVG will set his side up to be difficult to beat and that Arsenal wobble looks well and truly on!
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City
Spurs -1 and 2.5 goals
It was two apiece in Wales earlier this season but prior to that Spurs had won seven straight with the very first meeting in EPL action ending all square. With Swansea still searching for their first victory against Tottenham in the Premiership it’s hard to make a case for them here. Spurs are 8-2-1 against bottom third placed sides and have scored no fewer than twenty seven goals in those eleven matches. I’m happy to side with Spurs straight up but that midweek action with Fiorentina and the Europa League Thursday Night curse concerns me about their ability to cover.
