Round 26
With only a third of the EPL season remaining the title race is really starting to heat up. Two matches on Sunday will go a long way in determining the pecking order atop the table. James Kempton is here to give us a bit of clarity while previewing every single fixture on the schedule.
Sunderland v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland are 0-1-8 when taking on the top half teams of the league and have won just one of the last twenty seven EPL meetings of these two sides. Recent showings have been encouraging for the Mackems but I am more positive about United after last weeks trip to Chelsea. I can see those strong trends in this fixture continuing with Manchester United finding a way to get the job done but with the line shifting from -0.5 to 0.75 my enthusiasm has been slightly dampened.
Bournemouth v Stoke City
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.25 goals
It’s been three games in a row now where Stoke have conceded three goals and it’s clear to see they are a different defensive side without Ryan Shawcross in the line up. He is not due back until the end of February and I honestly cannot back them until he returns. I lean to the home side as this is one of those proverbial kitchen sink games that if they win can make a dramatic difference in avoiding relegation.
Crystal Palace v Watford
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals
I think Palace are probably just too many points clear of the drop zone to be pulled into the relegation fight but it is a possibility. If it’s a possibility for them then Watford aren’t free and clear either just one point ahead of their hosts. Goals have dried up for them, just two in their last five games and both of those were gained in the victory against Newcastle. Do both sides see a draw here as another result that inches them to safety or do they see this as the opportunity to all but seal their Premiership status for next season with a victory? Draw outright is the only play for me.
Everton v West Bromwich Albion
Everton -1 and 2.5 goals
Everton ran out 3-2 victors in the West Midlands in September and the Baggies have not won any of the last six EPL meetings of the two teams. They travel here without a win in five games and hovering just six points off of the relegation places. Can you really swallow a full goal with the home team? I can’t do that as although they should win the game and maybe they do it comfortably but these Toffees aren’t reliable enough to trust minus a full goal.
Norwich City v West Ham United
PK and 2.5 goals
The sides have met five times in the EPL since September 2012 and the away team has not won any of those games. However, the Canaries have lost five straight EPL games and a draw for them here would be seen as a great result to stem the bleeding. It’s hard to asses that result last time out for West Ham away to Southampton as they lost 1-0. Losing narrowly away to a side that has been in great form is not the worst result but I did favour them to get something from the game. I should go with the home team given the trends but I can’t trust them so it’s the away team or pass.
Swansea City v Southampton
PK and 2.25 goals
Southampton won 3-1 at home when the sides first met this season back in September. Prior to that though under 2.5 goals was on a 6-0 run with only two goals in those three games and both were scored in 1-0 Saints wins in Wales over the last two seasons. I will take a repeat of the past two seasons and take a slice of the Saints on the road off of this PK line.
Chelsea v Newcastle United
Chelsea -1.25 and 2.75 goals
There has been at least two goals scored in the last twelve meetings of the sides in the EPL. Chelsea have won the last three meetings of the sides at Stamford Bridge to nil but Newcastle have an injection of spirit after their transfer window dealings. I’m not prepared to give up this level of handicap start to what at times looks like an anemic Chelsea forward line. For the third week in a row I’m siding with Newcastle. Trusting Steve McLaren’s tactical nouse and the leadership skills of Fabricio Coloccini is not for the feint of heart but I will take the Geordies in this spot…just not for big stakes.
Arsenal v Leicester City
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.5 goals
We have to thank Arsenal in many ways for their 5-2 victory when the sides met in Leicester last September. That result was the benchmark that odds makers have used for months to gauge this Leicester side, their long term chances and to be honest we have been making money ever since! I’m not sure on this line there is much, if any, value with Leicester. Vardy as always will cause the home defence huge issues as let’s face it the Arsenal defenders are pretty weak and avoid physical contact at all costs. Over 2.5 goals is my lean and something is telling me the score will finish 2-1 to Arsenal.
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Liverpool won 3-2 at Anfield back in September and my first thoughts on this game are how did Villa really score twice in a game against somebody? Liverpool have won the last four straight EPL meetings at Villa Park and their last fifteen trips have seen them go 11-5-1. Historically this is a no brainer and you side with Liverpool but that 11-5-1 record was compiled with Fowler, Gerrard, Owen and Suarez. Can you trust Benteke, Lallana, Milner and Moreno to deliver? A pass for me on the match market as I’m not brave enough to take the home team but I lean to the unders on the goals market.
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester City -0.5 and 2.75 goals
City have won the last five meetings of the sides at the Etihad in EPL action and have out scored Spurs 10-1 over the last two seasons. Tottenham did pound the Blues 4-1 at White Hart Lane back in September so I’m sure they will be confident going into the game that they can at least avoid defeat. Over 2.5 goals is on a 8-1 run in the last nine league meetings. You have to be wary of a City backlash in this game but when the going gets tough who are their leaders out on the pitch? The answer is they don’t have any but with Vincent Kompany expected to return it changes things a bit. However I still see some value in the Spurs here.
