Round 25
We had the luxury of mid-week fixtures this week and the EPL clubs get right back into league play this weekend. James Kempton is here to offer his thoughts on every fixture just like he does every week during the season
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Manchester City v Leicester City
Manchester City -1 and 3 goals
Leicester’s biggest attacking threat comes when they are able to play on the break. As the home side swarm forward Leicester will look to hit them with quick counter punches through that forceful direct play that has served them so well this campaign. Will the home team adjust tactically? If they do then that limits their effectiveness going forward and I do not think they will be prepared to show Leicester the respect they deserve. Why would they as nobody else does! I believe in Leicester but let’s not forget they don’t need to win this game or even draw the match to still be able to win the title. I’m swerving this one and in some ways from a betting perspective it might not be the worst thing if Leicester lose this game as I’m sure their future odds will almost double if they lose. If they do fail in this spot then that’s when we pounce!
Aston Villa v Norwich City
Aston Villa -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The Canaries will want to make sure they avoid a loss at all costs. We are moving into the stage of the season where game theory begins to come into play. Will Norwich risk losing this game if it’s level and seeing a three point shift in the table? They’d be crazy too so I’m sure they will look to keep that parity come the final whistle. With the recent signing of Naismith they also have far more attacking threat than the home team and I will take Norwich to avoid defeat here.
Liverpool v Sunderland
Liverpool -1.25 and 2.5 goals
Liverpool won 1-0 at the Stadium of Light at the back end of December and the last three EPL meetings of the sides have seen a grand total of two goals. Is it wrong that I don’t have any enthusiasm for this game? I’m not prepared to give this Liverpool team this kind of start so will back the away dog on the handicap line for small stakes.
Newcastle United v West Bromwich Albion
Newcastle -0.5 and 2.25 goals
The Baggies ground out a 1-0 win at the Hawthornes just five weeks ago but even since then I sense both clubs are moving in different directions. Recent signings at St James’ Park have given the home faithful renewed optimism and if this is an open game where I can see only a home win. West Brom will look to keep it a tight affair and break the game up but I’m not sure Steve McLaren will allow that type of gameplan to work. He knows a fast open game suits his side so I’m sure he will make sure it happens. Give me the home team.
Stoke City v Everton
PK and 2.5 goals
Stoke won what was probably the game of the season so far 4-3 at Goodison Park just after Christmas. The Potters are now unbeaten in four meetings of the sides and have won three straight. An extra nights rest will be welcomed for them after two straight poor away defeats at Leicester and Manchester United. I will have a little bit of the over 2.5 goals here as Stoke’s traditionally strong defences have been breached far too often of late and well you know Everton won’t bother defending!
Swansea City v Crystal Palace
Swansea -0.25 and 2 goals
It was goalless earlier in the season and under 2.5 goals is on a 5-0 run since September 2013. Both sides went without a win in midweek and I can’t trust either here. With the goal line set so low I’m still not prepared to go over! This is the EPL’s version of the Buccs versus the Titans but thankfully it’s not a stand alone game!
Tottenham Hotspur v Watford
Tottenham -1 and 2.5 goals
Spurs grabbed a late winner in the first game but that was mainly down to that sending off on the hour mark for a Watford player. It’s a brave man who steps in front of this Spurs train at the moment and I ain’t that brave! A full goal is a lot to give up but they cruised for large periods of that game and have had an extra days rest with Watford playing Chelsea on Wednesday night. As in midweek I lean Tottenham and overs once again because you may not even need the Spurs’ opponent to contribute to cash the ticket.
Southampton v West Ham United
Southampton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Both sides had great results in midweek but I’m sure the exertions on the West Ham players were far less! West Ham played a large part of their game against just ten men as they hosted and beat basement side Aston Villa whilst the Saints were battling hard for a point away to Arsenal. West Ham are 5-4-3 on the road this season and they’ve gone to far better sides than Southampton and avoided defeat so I favour them +0.75 in this spot.
Bournemouth v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Arsenal cruised to a 2-0 win just after Christmas but that’s when they weren’t playing with the weight of the world on their shoulders. I didn’t want to back Arsenal -0.5 but now the line has shortened to -0.25 this is one of those buy low opportunities that you rarely get with the elite teams. Forget what you’ve seen the last few weeks and back Arsenal.
Chelsea v Manchester United
Chelsea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Forget the Broncos versus the Panthers this Sunday as this is the real ‘Big Game’. This was one of the more exciting goalless draws you’ll ever see when the sides met earlier in the season and the under 2.5 goals is now 6-1 in the last seven meetings of the sides in EPL action. United sprung into life on Tuesday night when they easily dispatched Stoke on home soil but this is a different proposition. I ain’t trusting Chelsea in this spot though either as we saw in midweek their attacking problems have not been solved. Pass.
