Mid-Week Report
The FA Cup spoiled our normal EPL viewing this past weekend. That’s the bad part but the ancilary benefit is a full slate of mid-week fixtures to give us the football fix. Like he does every round of the Premier League schedule James Kempton is here to share all this thoughts.
Arsenal v Southampton
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.5 goals
The Gunners go into this game with their mental strength coming under fire. Yes there were circumstances that led to their home defeat against Chelsea that you couldn’t factor in but even before the sending off they were second best on the pitch. The Saints won at Old Trafford in their previous outing and they travel here filled with confidence. Give me the Saints in this one as maybe the wobble is well and truly on at The Emirates.
Leicester City v Liverpool
PK and 2.25 goals
When Liverpool beat Leicester 1-0 on Boxing Day many thought that would be the beginning of the end for this Leicester dream! The Foxes have shown a good deal of resilience to shake off their poorer results this season and not let it affect their belief they can challenge. The Foxes sit top of the table yet this game is priced at PK! Liverpool have improved under Klopp but much of this has been based on his passion rather than a rise in talent level. Jamie Vardy will give this Pool defence heart attacks with his directness so I’m all over Leicester on this PK line.
Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.5 goals
New signing Naismith bagged a goal in his debut for the Canaries last Saturday but they somehow managed to lose a game 5-4 that at one point they comfortably led 3-1. Spurs ran out easily 3-0 winners on Boxing Day when the sides met and Norwich are 1-3-4 against top third teams with twenty nine total goals. Spurs are 5-3-1 against bottom third teams with twenty nine total goals in this spot. I see the value with the away team and over.
Sunderland v Manchester City
Manchester City -1 and 2.75 goals
Sorry folks but I’m going to bore you with statistical science for this game! The last four meetings of the sides have gone over 3.5 goals and it’s been 7-3 to over 2.5 goals in the last ten meetings of the teams. City won this fixture 4-1 at the Stadium of Light last season and come into this game on fire from an attacking perspective. City are 7-1-0 against bottom third sides this season, scoring twenty five goals and conceding five whilst Sunderland are 0-1-7 against top third teams, conceding twenty two goals and scoring seven goals. Going by those stats City should win 3-1 shouldn’t they? Love the over 2.75 in this spot.
West Ham United v Aston Villa
West Ham United -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Under 2.5 goals is on 6-1 run when the sides meet in EPL action and all of the last five have gone under the total including the 1-1 Boxing Day draw. Incredibly given their sixth position West Ham are just 3-5-2 against bottom third teams whilst Villa are 0-3-5 against top third. Even if you don’t class West Ham as a top third team they’re only 1-1-5 against middle third teams. West Ham have scored eighteen goals in games at home so do you back the home win to nil? The stats suggest West Ham won’t lose this game and I just lean to them to win the game minus half a goal while trends tell me to side with under 2.5 goals.
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Palace lost 3-1 at home to Spurs last time out despite taking the lead. Bournemouth were also unable to hold on in a similar situation away to Sunderland but at least Eddie Howe’s men gained a point. It was goalless on the south coast earlier this season and Palace have not scored themselves, as last weeks goal for them against Spurs was an own goal, in their last six matches. Maybe Palace are just fading but with a line of -0.25 I’m not that tempted to side with the away team in this spot.
Manchester United v Stoke City
Manchester United -0.75 and 2.25 goals
After twenty five or so years of solidity the last few years have been full of turmoil at Old Trafford. Well now you know how the rest of us who support other teams feel! Both teams lost last time out as United were beaten 1-0 by Southampton and Stoke lost 3-0 in a disappointing showing at title chasing Leicester. Stoke gained only their second EPL win over United on Boxing Day in fifteen attempts and who’d back against them to repeat that fear here? Stoke are the value as I make this line just half a goal but it’s not a game I am eager to partake in.
West Bromwich Albion v Swansea City
PK and 2 goals
The Baggies ground out another point and a clean sheet in their last game at home to Aston Villa as Tony Pulis ensures yet again that a club retains EPL status. I’m beginning to wonder though, albeit quite early into his reign, when will the supporters begin to tire of his methods? Swansea pulled a great win out of their hat at Goodison Park last time out as they beat the Toffees 2-1. There has not been a single draw in any of the nine EPL meetings of the teams since September 2011 with Swansea winning the Boxing Day clash of the teams 1-0. Whoever you like to win this game those trends suggest the value is with backing them straight up rather than on a PK line. Sadly I ain’t got a clue!
Everton v Newcastle United
Everton -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Everton slumped to a 2-1 home defeat at the hands of Swansea and they were booed off the pitch. Newcastle lost 2-1 away to Watford last time out and I sense the way for them to play this game is to take a conservative approach and look to keep it tight and frustrate the home fans. But can they do that? Everton snuck a 1-0 win at St James’ Park when the sides met earlier this season and Newcastle have won just one of their last twelve visits to Goodison Park. The signings of Shelvey and Townsend should excite the Geordie faithful and +0.75 I sense Newcastle are the side to play if you want to bet this game.
Watford v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Both teams had solid wins last time out in Premiership action. Watford beat Newcastle 2-1 at Vicarage Road whilst the Blues, aided by an early sending off, got all three points from their trip to The Emirates thanks to a solitary Diego Costa goal. It was two apiece on Boxing Day when the sides met as Chelsea were lucky to escape with a share of the spoils. Chelsea are so inconsistent I don’t think you can even consider betting them in this spot. This is a game where the home dog will probably up their game so I lean Watford as I’m not convinced Chelsea have the goals threat to ever pull away from them in the game.
