Johnson vs Bader
UFC Fox Johnson vs. Bader: Tap-out on the Turnpike
All fight analysis provided by Gamblou
Welcome UFC Enthusiasts. Today’s fight card features some pretty compelling fights for the followers like us that fancy Fido. We’ve had a slow start managing mongrels in 2016 but our game is about a consistent quest to uncover value in the UFC so the slow start concerns us not. We’ll not attempt to get it all back today by overreaching rather we understand that the 2016 UFC campaign has just begun so today we look to take home some take home and reduce our negative balance and create monumental momentum as we head into February while there remains numerous fight cards ahead of us. A steady hand, patience and consistency is what we are all about as we undergo dynamic Due Diligence, remain supremely Selective in determining what releases we make each Saturday there is a UFC fight card. Here’s the tail wagers we’ll talk about today:
UFC 2016: 2-6 <340.00>
-Let’s Fight-
Brown -120 vs. Dwyer +100
We like Dwyer’s length but have questions about his cardio and chin. We know little about his opponent Randy Brown expect that he is strong where Dwyer is weak….the beak. We’ll read the line here as we trust our amigo Nick Kalikas when he sets numbers for these fights and Brown opened up -230 and we can get him now -125 (as of this writing). We’ll value grab here with our only non-canine of the card.
Brown -120
Northcutt -280 vs. Barberena +230
Sage Northcutt is the UFC’s shiny new toy. He plays the part with well with a chiseled physique, a magnetic smile and superior skills. The only thing we have yet to see from Super Sage is if he can survive in the Octagon against a real fighter. Enter Bryan Barberena a natural 170 pound veteran who will welcome Sage up to the 170 weight class from 155. Now we do understand that it will be damn near impossible for Barberena to earn a decision from the UFC’s golden boy knowing we are betting against a fine fighter that the judges will have ahead a point before the opening bell even rings (not really but we do understand that the UFC wants to manage and protect their potential golden goose). We understand that Barberena was preparing for a fight a few weeks off so the short notice is something we discount to a great degree. We are also aware that the MMALab team has been training Bryan specifically for this fight once they realized that this opportunity was theirs. So we’ll say it like this, if Sage defeats Barberena then we WILL be believers but Northcutt’s opposition in prior UFC fights is basically a joke. Trevino? Please. At one point in time this fight was Northcutt -450 as the parlay playing puke’s saw this as an automatic for Sage. We absolutely don’t and released this some days ago after telling our insiders about the value in Barberena +375. Today Barberena who will give away some quickness to the younger man will also be in position to take him to school. It’s our position that Barberena will grind, smother and test the younger man here and provide him his PhD in the UFC. We see value in Barberena but less where the market currently sits
Barberena +350 (as released on Twitter)
Barnett -140 vs Rothwell +120
We recognize Josh Barnett as a supremely qualified and experienced heavyweight MMA fighter. He is however 38 years old and has not been in the Octagon since 2014. While we give Barnett the more well-rounded fighter label in this spot we believe the intangibles all favor Big Ben (the fighter not the QB). Rothwell enters the Octagon tonight with momentum and a chip on his shoulders the size of Jupiter for Rothwell is a fighter the UFC swept aside in order to gift Miocic a fight with the ancient Andrei Arlovski some weeks ago. Rothwell has power and might, is the lager man in the octagon (something that will be a challenge to Barnett who usually owns the size advantage) even though he may give the quickness angle to Barnett. This is Rothwell’s time and he is focused and ready to get his shot at the title and after he batters Barnett he’ll be closer to his goals if only the UFC will provide him a fair shot.
Rothwell +120
Johnson -290 vs. Bader +240
We were surprised when we saw how much larger Bader was at weigh-ins than Johnson. The Bader camp is going to try to take a page out of DC’s manual on how to beat AJ by getting inside the pocket, smothering the powerful puncher and taking him deep into the portion of a UFC fight where tough mindedness is questioned for the Bader camp feels they can get AJ to quit or at least become frustrated post first round as DC displayed. Surely Johnson and his bunch at the Blackzillians are aware of how Darth will attack AJ. We view AJ’s fights with Phil Davis and DC as the reasons we believe he will be prepared to demolish Darth tonight for Johnsons power is real and his conditioning looks to be such that a long grueling fight is what he has prepared for. Let’s not also forget that AJ has an accomplished wrestling base and that the striking advantages will be all his. This fight opened AJ -350 and today as we write this he is -260. We’re watching this one with the hope that this line continues to compress and provide more value on what we consider to be a worthy chalk here. Keep an eye on twitter for if we do move on this fight it will be published there.
