EPL Round 23
Our favorite Premier League Insider shares his thoughts on the full slate of fixtures for this coming weekend.
As always you can see more of Jimmy’s work here or listen to his podcast here
Norwich City v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.5 goals
It was 1-1 on Merseyside back in September but prior to that it was 5-0 to over 2.5 goals since April 2012 and four of those went over 4.5 goals. The signing of Stephen Naismith intrigues me for Norwich as since he was left out by Everton they have become far easier to play against. I think it’s a very astute signing as he is a little rat of a player and he could help ignite a survival bid for the Canaries. I will stick with the trends here and grab a bit of over 2.5 goals.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.25 and 2.25 goals
When you don’t score a goal in five games it’s pretty hard to get any points from games. Worrying times for Palace and without a genuine star striker to end this run their confidence is in danger of continuing on this downward spiral. It doesn’t help when your keeper starts allowing shots to go in that your grandmother could save! Palace won this game 2-1 last season but at present its hard to see them scoring the two goals in a game that they will probably need to beat this in form Tottenham side. I really like Spurs in this spot.
Leicester City v Stoke City
Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals
You all know that after a long time on the sidelines I hopped well and truly on the Leicester bus about seven weeks ago. However, there are signs that their challenge is beginning to ebb away and this Stoke side are a very dangerous opponent and won 1-0 in this spot last season. Mahrez, Okazaki and Vardy will cause them issues but I’m sure Mark Hughes will ensure minimal space can be found behind his back four. Stoke plus half a goal looks very generous.
Manchester United v Southampton
Man Utd -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Despite being second best for larger periods of the game at Anfield last Sunday Wayne Rooney popped up to drill home a winner and earn all three points for the Red Devils. Southampton have regrouped of late after a slow start to the season as Ronald Koeman seems to have re-established his authority over his group of players. There have been seven EPL meetings of the sides since September 2012 and there has been just one home victory, United’s 2-1 win in March 2013. Given their recent upturn in form I sense the away team are the side to take but I can’t do it. A pass for me.
Sunderland v Bournemouth
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Big Sam had his tactical changes questioned by the talking heads last Saturday at Tottenham. After his initial team selection stifled Spurs his decision to switch formations at 1-1 saw his team concede three quick goals and leave him with egg on his face. Bournemouth had a regulation home victory over Norwich last time out and they will target this game as a must not lose. I was surprised to see this line open at PK and am gobsmacked to see the away team backed down to -0.25 favourites. At PK I was going to suggest the brave should side with the home team but on this line even the weak amongst you should side with the Mackems.
Watford v Newcastle United
Watford -0.5 and 2.25 goals
It looks like the steam is running out of Watford’s season as they have failed to score in each of their last two games, against Southampton and Swansea. Newcastle look revitalized of late and the way Watford are sliding down the league table combined with their lack of goals they shouldn’t be giving up half a goal to anyone at present. Newcastle or pass.
West Bromwich Albion v Aston Villa
West Brom -0.5 and 2.25 goals
One of the fiercest rivalries in football will ignite at The Hawthornes this Saturday afternoon. Yes on BTTS has gone 14-5 since November 2002 and over 2.5 goals has hit 11-8 and only five of those nineteen have seen one or less goals. I definitely like the overs in the goal market with this line set at 2.25 but in this derby game, even with Villa’s lowly position, I am keeping away from the match market.
West Ham United v Manchester City
Man City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
After such a good win away to Bournemouth last midweek I’m sure it really annoyed Coach Bilic that the Hammers couldn’t at least gain a draw away to Newcastle. Man City unloaded four unanswered goals at home to a Crystal Palace last time out so they are brimming with confidence. West Ham won 2-1 at The Etihad back in September of last year and this revenge angle won’t be lost on the City players going into this game. City are clicking again now Aguerro is back to somewhere near his best but it’s the home team or pass for me and I think there will be goals.
Everton v Swansea City
Everton -0.75 and 2.5 goals
In truth Everton are a joy to watch as they can’t defend for Toffee, ironic given their nickname! Swansea are the opposite of a joy to watch at present but they did manage a 1-0 win at home to Watford last time out. There have been nine EPL meetings and two cup games between the sides since December 2011 and Swansea have not won any of those eleven matches and have been outscored 18-5. One small ray of hope for Swansea is the fact that the last three have been drawn. A lot of the Martinez free spirit lives on in this Swansea side so I will lean to the over 2.5 goals but in truth I want to pass this game.
Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Chelsea won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge back in September, one of the few bright spots of Mourinho’s reign this season. In fact Chelsea have not conceded in any of the last five EPL meetings of the teams. Two consecutive draws for the home team against Liverpool and Stoke make me concerned about siding with them here. Are they losing their nerve? Maybe, maybe not but I don’t want to kick myself come the final whistle come Sunday. I’d rather pass the game.
