EPL Round 22
Enough of the nostalgia associated with the FA Cup; it’s back to the basics for English football at it’s highest level. James Kempton is here with complete fixture analysis to get your wallet right for the weekend
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Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland
Tottenham Hotspur -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Spurs are unbeaten in the last eleven EPL meetings of the sides but interstingly only one of their eight wins was by more than one goal. Given those trends it’s hard to stomach the handicap line for Spurs in this game. If Spurs score early like Man City did at home to Sunderland it could get ugly. A pass for me though.
Bournemouth v Norwich City
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The Canaries won 3-1 in Norwich back in September and last season they avoided defeat in both games against Bournemouth including a 2-1 win on the south coast. Bournemouth were priced up at minus half a goal for this midweeks game at home to West Ham. The line is priced the same here when they host a far inferior opponent than the Hammers and that puzzles me. After that loss though to West Ham maybe this is a fairer priced line for two teams I just can’t trust.
Chelsea v Everton
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Quiz time! Name me the scorer of the last winning goal in EPL action for Everton at Stamford Bridge? It was Paul Rideout and it was November 1994. Some strong Everton teams have travelled to the capital to take on Chelsea in the last twenty years and none have come away victorious. Nothing I’ve seen from this lightweight Everton team makes me think they will head north with all three points but can you trust Chelsea? Everton do have the capability to score goals though and it’s hard to believe Coach Martinez can oversee two goalless draws in a week. I think I’d rather side with the over 2.5 goals than lay the extra quarter goal over what they should be priced at with the home team.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace
Man City -1.25 and 3 goals
City have won the three league and cup meetings of the sides at the Etihad since December 2013 by a combined 9-1 scoreline. They also squeaked out a win at Selhurst Park back in September. Palace are resilient travellers and under Pardew are a very organised unit. They shouldn’t be given this kind of start against any team in this division. Give me the away team.
Newcastle United v West Ham United
Pk and 2.5 goals
No on BTTS is on a 7-1 run at present when the sides meet in EPL action with unders going 6-2 in that run. This is a game that I look at and think the books have priced spot on. I would lean to the unders but with both teams scoring three goals in midweek even that bet is not as attractive as the trends suggest.
Southampton v West Bromwich Albion
Southampton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
The sides have met seven times since November 2011 in EPL action and those games have generated just eight goals and the last five have seen just three goals! In view of those trends and the way both teams have been shot shy this season how can Southampton be giving up three quarters of a goal? It won’t be pretty but I will take some of the away team here and in truth I think it’s remarkable what Pulis is doing there. From an attacking standpoint they have nothing!
Aston Villa v Leicester City
Leicester City -0.25 and 2.25 goals
An under the radar local derby that doesn’t get the mention it deserves for the ferociousness of the atmosphere. Leicester won 3-2 back in September when the sides met and Villa were priced off scratch against Palace in midweek. Aston Villa may win this game but I’m not sure how you could ever back them with their lack of attacking options compared to the creativity of the Foxes. A clear Leicester or pass.
Liverpool v Manchester United
Liverpool -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Overs are 13-3 when the sides meet in EPL action since March 2008. Sometimes current form and lack of creative threat can be thrown out the window. Even if this day of the foreign player dominating EPL line ups the crowd can whip up the game into such a frenzy that it just becomes a basketball game! Klopp will be waving on the sideline and Van Gaal will play hangman or whatever he does with Ryan Giggs on his notepad whilst mayhem ensues on the pitch. At 2.25 on the goal line I sense this is a no brainer bet on the overs.
Stoke City v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The away team when these sides meet in EPL action has not won any of the last eleven matches and just one of fifteen total league games since November 2008. I don’t think you need to know much more than that really. Arsenal struggled at the Britannia even when the Potters were technically challenged. I will take the new Stoke to gain at least a draw.
Swansea City v Watford
Swansea -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Poor Swansea, one of the few FA Cup shocks of the weekend. Who am I kidding I loved it but in truth was anybody really surprised they lost at Oxford. Watford won the first meeting of the sides 1-0 earlier this season and we know they will look to keep it tight and frustrate the Swans. I lean to Watford but this is a game I sense offers little opportunities from a betting perspective.
