Gambling Resolutions
The start of a new year gives everyone a chance to reflect on the year that was while also making promises to become better versions of ourselves. Some of us say we’ll be nicer to our family, others say living a healthier lifestyle needs to become a priority, and there’s even a segment of the population that vows to put in longer hours at the office. The unfortunate reality is after a few short weeks we find ourselves mired in the same bad habits that have become as much a part of our daily lives as air and water.
As sports gamblers I think it’s equally as important to force yourself to try new things outside of the comfort zone to take your handicapping to the next level. Here’s my list of New Year’s resolutions for the recreational bettor…that even the most hardened veteran can learn from too.
Keep an accurate accounting of your bets
Whether you find yourself betting $5 a game or $5,000, keep tabs on where that gambling money is going. The best bettors know exactly what their ROI, win percentage, and average juice looks like at all times. The brain is funny, it allows us to remember only what we want to including fictitious levels of sports betting success. I know there’s nothing more difficult than logging losing wagers during a rough patch but doing so allows all of us to identify strengths and weaknesses as handicappers. I always tell people just getting started in this business to set realistic expectations; you’re going to lose before you win and establishing an annual track record of success takes time. There’s nothing wrong with viewing sports betting as viable entertainment the same way people look at playing golf, going to the movies, or attending concerts
Make yourself accountable
Gambling is a funny business: everyone has an opinion (some better than others) making it difficult to digest important information and consolidate it into a well-informed position. Remember in this business you become your own judge, jury, and executioner for every single wager you make. No one forces you to pull the trigger on a bet meaning the faster you come to understand accountability the quicker you mature as a bettor. I can’t tell you how tiresome it is to hear friends, family, or folks on social media play Monday morning quarterback criticizing others for bets gone awry after games go final. If you’re going to take credit for a win don’t look to pass the buck when a game loses.
Find at least one additional new out
We all start our betting in the same place: the local bookie. Eventually that single book gets supplemented with an online shop or second local and it’s the official opening of a Pandora’s Box never to be closed again. The deeper you get into this business, the more important outs become with some offering slower moving lines, reduced juice, better future prices, etc. Whether you have 1, 5, 10, or 20 different books to take your action make it a chore this year to get yourself another out. Even casual bettors should make the extra effort to avoid taking a bad number whenever possible. This business has razor thin margins for success as is; don’t make it harder on yourself by limiting profitable opportunities.
Avoid chasing or the “action” bet
Everyone’s been there; searching for the late game on a busy Saturday just to stop the bleeding. Well you know what, how about you stop the bleeding yourself by living to fight another day? I’m always keen on a saying that it’s easier to get out of a ditch than the Grand Canyon when it comes to gambling losses. There is no “due factor” in sports betting. Slumps are always going to be a part of this business, they’re impossible to avoid. The key during these rough patches is mitigating losses, weathering the storm until things start to turn around one win at a time. Avoid the trap of betting games just because it’s the playoffs, Monday Night Football, or MACtion; wait until an edge emerges and take that as the opportune time to pounce.
Learn to live bet
This is the wave of the future…and for most of the world not in the United States the future is firing on all cylinders. Live betting gives the sophisticated bettor an opportunity to enter the market at a better price than what may have been available pre-match. For those more comfortable watching match-ups unfold or breaking down X’s and O’s in real time this is one of the best ways to maximize profits during the game. The major pitfall is finding a shop that allows regular limits and doesn’t gouge with .30 to .40 cent lines. In-play wagering already represents the lion’s share of betting handle taking place around the world on soccer matches. It’s been painfully slow coming to Vegas but it should be widely available at most offshore books where you’d consider depositing.
Make totals and props your friend
Traditional pre-match lines on the biggest sporting events are viewed as the most efficient markets. There’s a reason sports books in Las Vegas take much larger wagers on the Super Bowl than they’d ever consider for the CFL. Well beyond that are the props and totals markets which can offer a ton of value for the casual bettor that’s done his homework. If you’re not looking to move large limits spend your time on a derivative market that bookmakers neglect. Identify a player poised for a big night or seek out a second half total that doesn’t account for a major injury. I know it’s sexy to win big on the biggest games but the money on a points + rebounds prop for Will Barton pays just as handsomely as the side in the AFC championship. Identify your edge and look to exploit it to the house’s expense
