UFC 195
UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit: Welterweight’s wager war
All analysis provided by GambLou
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to 2016. In the coming year we’re committed to refining our releases and waging our own war against both the linemakers and the matchmakers when it comes to the UFC for as the years wear on both grow more accomplished at their craft. Improvements in fighting acumen by the fighters themselves, keener matchmaking by the organization and more competitive money lines set by the ‘Makers force us to improve our abilities if we are to remain profitable in ‘16.
In the UFC (and in all wagering pursuits) if one remains constant in an ever evolving gaming arena then one is bound to be beat down. Therefore…..we’ll commit to undertaking more comprehensive Due Diligence, we’ll work on remaining supremely Selective and as always we’ll manage profitability precisely. With these basic fundamentals in focus we now turn to our passion….MMA and specifically UFC 195 and the UFC in 2016.
UFC 2015: 86-108-2 + $1,446.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Westcott -165 vs. Garcia +145
While Westcott may look the part we believe wagering on fighters requires more than handicapping how they appear. Westcott brings 110% for the first 4:30 of a fight then tends to gas. His blueprint is to submit and make no mistake about it Garcia’s submission D is somewhat suspect. That said if we can get Garcia into round two then his cardio, his power, and his stand up could well make this a tough outing for the Canadian.
Garcia +145 (half)
Holtzman -180 vs. Dober +160
This fight position pains us for we respect and have learned so much from the professional family at the MMALab in Glendale, AZ. Holtzman is a well-rounded fighter with fine striking, excellent cardio and superior kicks. He takes this fight on relative short notice but he enters this fight against a man that the MMALab just prepared for in Dober’s last fight out which was a submission loss to Effie Escudero….an MMALab fighter! Holtzman will certainly be prepared for what Drew does. That said we believe this is a sizable step up in competition for Scott. Dober has been on the wrong end of some weird results recently and we believe this fight is the most important of his career thus far. Dober’s future in the UFC is based on tonight’s result therefore we trust that we will receive his finest effort. Dober’s best effort should allow him to bring this fight right to Holtzman and see how he reacts to another aggressive, forward moving, power slugger. Dober opened a modest+135 but this line has grown in value enough by today for us to bark at
Dober +160 (half)
Tumenov -250 vs. Larkin +230
Tumenov is not your ordinary Russian Sambo specialist for he brings a precision striking/kicking arsenal into the Octagon and his striking power is lethal. Tumenov just dominated a fighter in
Alan Jouban that simply could not hold up to the Russians mental toughness and forward moving pressure striking. His opponent tonight, Lorenz Larkin has finally found his true weight class and this fight will be a benchmark for him. Should Larkin fold under the Russian’s pressure here we believe he will end up in no man’s land….a fighter who has tried 3 various weight classes with little result to show for it. Larkin has trained with his buddy ‘true desperation’ for this fight and to remain a factor in this welterweight division, he’ll need to use his superior speed, athleticism and counter punching in order to slow the younger man down and steal a victory. We took this fight earlier +180 so those playing today receive and extra .50 cents of value. Not bad
Larkin +230
Miocic -220 vs. Arlovski +200
Miocic is younger, taller, longer and sports a distinct cardio advantage over the bully from Belarus yet something tells us this is not going to be so easy for Stipe. Further, we are interested in what kind of injury forced Stipe out of the fight with Ben Rothwell yet puts him in position to fight Andrei so soon after? We respect Arlovski’s recent run and attribute much of it to Jackson-Winkeljohn who’ve proven to be a most accomplished championship gym. While we respect Stipe’s beak we can’t help feeling that the banger from Belarus is going to test it early and often. Call it ‘gut feel’ but in a three round fight we feel that Arlovski has the touch to turn out Stipe’s lights.
Arlovski +200
