Boxing Day
For those unfamiliar with the EPL and it’s holiday traditions Boxing Day football ranks right alongside the American brand of football we’ve grown accustomed to on Thanksgiving. Thankfully James Kempton is here to serve as a voice of reason amid the holiday chaos.
Stoke City v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.25 and 2 goals
Stoke are unbeaten in the last two league matches against United at the Brittania but they have won just one of fourteen total EPL meetings. Interestingly there have been at least two goals in each of the last thirteen total of the sides but over 2.5 goals is still only 7-6. Is time running out for LVG? Historically United have never sacked managers so soon into their reign but the world has changed and with Jose and Pep lurking there are two big names out there on the outside looking in. I can’t take United here so give me the home team and after last weeks pretty girl comparison maybe I should call them the ‘Sex Potters’?
Aston Villa v West Ham
Pk and 2.25 goals
Under 2.5 goals is on a 4-0 run when the sides meet in EPL action and over a longer period is 11-5. Results favour the home team as since March 1997 there have been just four away wins in the thirty one EPL matches. I see this game panning out just like the Hammers’ trip to Wales last week so I will take the unders here. Let’s be honest if this game was being played in your local park would you even leave the house to go and watch it?
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Two great 2-1 away wins were the order of the day for the sides last time out and both are making good strides this season. Palace though are a mightily impressive 5-1-2 away this season and travel to a side who are eight places below them in the league. Give me the visitors plus a quarter of a goal as with Stoke well away from the south coast and out of sight I’m ready to kiss that pretty Palace girl again!
Chelsea v Watford
Chelsea -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Let’s assess this game objectively. Watford have played seventeen games this season and have been beaten by more than one goal a grand total of two times, away at Man City and home to Arsenal. Trends suggest it’s a no brainer take of the away team on the handicap but I urge caution before you pile in. You have to be concerned about this new feel good factor that is emanating, rightly or wrongly, out of Stamford Bridge since the departure of the Special One. With that in mind it can only be a tentative lean to the away side.
Liverpool v Leicester City
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.75 goals
As per the game before let’s look at the facts! Leicester went to the top of the league after that great win against Everton whilst the Toffees Merseyside rivals were humbled 3-0 at Watford. Liverpool have covered this line in just six of seventeen games whilst Leicester have covered this line in sixteen of seventeen games. No brainer back of the away team here and until they trends let us down just keep riding this express train!
Manchester City v Sunderland
Manchester City -2 and 3.25 goals
If you include the League Cup then City have scored twenty four goals in the last seven meetings of the sides at The Etihad. Sunderland defended atrociously last weekend at Stamford Bridge and after two early goals Chelsea were in cruise control. City are 7-1-1 against the bottom half and have scored 24 and conceded 7 in those nine games. I’m not laying two goals here but with City looking so shaky at the back even this Sunderland side will fancy their chances of scoring so I lean to the over.
Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Swansea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
There have been at least two goals in each of the sides’ eight EPL meetings since September 2011 with overs hitting at a rate of 6-2. West Brom, well to be more accurate James McClean, hurt us last Saturday as the temperamental Irishman’s sending off cost us any chance of winning our bet on the Baggies off of scratch. There have been just twelve goals in West Brom’s seven league games against bottom half teams this season. With Swansea drawing a blank last weekend I’m not sure if either side is capable of finding the net in this one. Unders for me.
Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Spurs -1.25 and 3 goals
Historically this has been a low scoring fixture with under 2.5 goals going 5-1 in EPL meetings since December 2012. With the capability that Spurs show to shut down their opponents attacking threat I can see them winning this game to nil. This Norwich side are an interesting opponent though as they rarely get hammered and are improving. With the goal line set at three I will take a piece of the unders on the goal line as the Canaries may ruffle the home feathers and keep it tighter than many expect.
Newcastle United v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.75 goals
There have been at least three goals in each of the last nine EPL meetings since March 2011 but only four of those games saw four or more goals. Newcastle were forced to share the points at home to Aston Villa last Saturday in a monsoon whilst Everton were beaten 3-2 at home by table topping Leicester. It seems another season will go by where Roberto Martinez fails to advise his team that although attack is the best form of defence it is handy if you do at least try and defend! A game on the match line to avoid for me from a betting perspective but given those historical trends I will lean to the over.
Southampton v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The Gooners have not won any of their three EPL visits to St Mary’s since Southampton returned to the top flight in the 2012-13 season. The Saints won this meeting of the sides 2-0 last New Years Day but they are on a downward spiral this season. Arsenal are only 2-1-2 against team placed in the middle third of the table but Southampton are a terrible 0-3-5 against top half opposition. With the Saints only scoring six goals in those eight games it’s Arsenal for me in this one.
