EPL Round 17
Another weekend of EPL action is upon us and James Kempton is here to be our voice of reason. The biggest news of the week came at Stamford Bridge where the defending champions sacked their manager Jose Mourinho. It will be interesting to see if this sparks a Chelsea side that continues to flounder at the bottom of the table
Read this week’s Goal Rush column
Chelsea v Sunderland
Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Chelsea won this meeting of the sides 3-1 back in May but they have only covered over a minus one goal line in three of the last ten meetings. Over 2.5 goals is 12-2 in the last 14 EPL meets so my initial thoughts that this 2.75 goal line was priced too high may be misguided. Both of these teams have let me down often of late so I’m staying well clear of this game especially with the new found managerial uncertainty as well.
Everton v Leicester City
Everton -0.5 and 2.75 goals
Two 2-2 draws between the sides last season and nothing we have seen so far this campaign makes us think this will be a low scoring game. If we start believing in the Leicester fairytale is that when it will all end? Nothing we have seen so far suggests it will stop and I don’t know why the bookmakers think this untrustworthy Everton side will be the team to stop them. Over 2.5 goals is a combined 21-11 this season for the teams. Away dog and overs for me.
Manchester United v Norwich City
Man Utd -1 and 2.5 goals
The sides have met four times at Old Trafford since October 2011 (including one FA Cup game) and United have outscored the Canaries 14-0 in those games. Half time adjustments. It’s a phrase we often hear in the NFL but rarely one that we give much credence to in the EPL. Twice though in successive home games Norwich have trailed at the interval to superior foes in Arsenal and Everton. In both games they have come back revitalised after the break and earned a point. So for United to cover this line they have to score two goals? That fact in itself puts me off backing the Reds.
Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur
Scratch and 2.5 goals
Southampton have scored twice in the last two meetings at St Marys but its only been good enough for one point. Last season 2-2 draw followed on from a Spurs 3-2 win the season before. All three EPL meetings on the south coast since October 2012 have gone over 2.5 goals. I was bitterly disappointed by Spurs last weekend and Harry Kane cannot be expected to play at the top of his game every week. A supposed title challenging team should be able to beat Newcastle at home without their main goal threat firing. I thought the goal line would be priced at 2.25 so I should lean to the under but the historical trends toward the over puts me off yet another game this week!
Stoke City v Crystal Palace
Stoke -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Palace won this game 2-1 back in March with the reverse fixture ending one apiece. Two teams meet here that I really like and have profited from of late. This is like when you’ve been chatting two women up and then you see them out together and realise they know each other. You end up hiding in the toilets rather than making a decision as to who you like the most. I can’t choose between the two and it’s another no play for me. I will probably go back to texting them both next week!
West Bromwich Albion v AFC Bournemouth
Scratch and 2.25 goals
Finally a game I do have some definitive thoughts on. I lauded Bournemouth for their two wins in successive games away at Chelsea and then home to Manchester United. This is a different task though and Tony Pulis will have had this match circled as a ‘could win’. Off of this line I love West Brom as they are 4-1-1 against bottom half sides this season with no fewer than five clean sheets in those six matches. Bournemouth are 2-1-5 against bottom half teams as it seems they can only raise their game against the big guns.
Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Newcastle -0.5 and 2.5 goals
There have been just two goals in the last three EPL meetings of the sides. Both of those goals were in 1-0 Newcastle home wins and the Geordies are unbeaten in the last eight meetings of the teams, five wins and three draws. Villa have not scored many goals this season but then again on a plus half a goal line they don’t need to score a goal to cash a ticket here. I have a feeling this will be either 4-0 to Newcastle or a sneaky 0-1 to Villa. A tentative lean to the in form Newcastle but trust them at your peril.
Watford v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.25 goals
This reminds me of Monday night at Leicester. It is just before Christmas and the seventh placed team host the ninth placed team and the away team who are placed lower in the league are favoured by half a goal! I mention when it’s played because we are nearly half way through the season, it’s not September anymore and short term form lines should have been driven out of these numbers. Pure value suggests the home side and after last Sunday’s shambolic celebratory scenes at Anfield then a draw would be a truly amazing result for Liverpool, up there with their Champions League win!
Swansea City v West Ham United
Swansea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
There have been two draws and one home win in the three EPL meetings of the sides since August 2012. Under 2.5 goals is 4-2 in the six EPL meets and West Ham have scored just one goal in their three visits to Wales. This will be pass pass pass and probably getting nowhere by Swansea and West Ham trying to sneak the game 1-0 as they have zero creative threat. In a game of minimal appeal, Unders!
Arsenal v Manchester City
Arsenal -0.25 and 2.75 goals
There have been at least two goals in each of the last six meetings of the sides but under 2.5 goals is 4-2 in that run and under 2.5 goals is 8-3 in the last eleven meetings of the teams. Arsenal have only won one of the last six meetings of the sides at The Emirates and under 2.5 goals is 5-1 but it did finish 2-2 last season in north London. This should be an open and attractive game but that doesn’t always translate into goals. I lean to the under as both teams would gladly take a point.
