EPL Round 16
Another week of Premier League action is upon us and an unusual fixture dominates the weekend schedule on Monday night. To add logic and reason to the topsy turvy EPL climate is our very own insider James Kempton
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Norwich City v Everton
Pk and 2.5 goals
The sides have met six time since December 2011 in EPL action and Yes on BTTS has gone 5-1 with four games ending all square and the away team winning none of the six. I can’t bet in this match market but I would lean towards Everton on a Pk line. If you think Everton will win the game then the over 2.5 goals bet would be the side to take in the goals market given the propensity of the Yes on BTTS to land.
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Pk and 2.25 goals
I’m surprised to see Palace not installed as a favourite here but their home form has been consistently shaky this campaign. Southampton have won all four meetings of the sides in EPL action since September 2013 but they were made to struggle last Saturday at home by Villa. I do lean to the home team though on this line and am not put off betting the half time draw which has proved to be an ATM for backers this season in Palace games.
Manchester City v Swansea City
Man City -1.5 and 3 goals
City have won the last four meetings of the sides and have scored at least twice (12 goals in total) in each of those games. City was without the spine of their team, Kompany, Toure and Aguerro all missing last week and David Silva is only just getting back to fitness so can we read too much into that loss at Stoke? Coach Monk has been sacked at Swansea so it looks like they head into this game as a side with no clear direction. Even given their recent struggles it’s the home side or pass for me.
Sunderland v Watford
Pk and 2.2.5 goals
Sunderland fought really hard last weekend at the Emirates and were unlucky to go down 3-1. Watford continued their fine run with a 2-0 home win over Norwich. The Mackems are clearly showing some fight since Big Sam has come in and on the Pk line I sense you can only make a case to play the home team. Unders would be my goal lean as we’ve seen that Sunderland will always look to ensure they are in the game late before trying to steal victory.
West Ham United v Stoke City
West Ham -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Both teams come into this game high in confidence after last weeks results. The Hammers without all of their creative players fought out a fantastic goalless draw away at Man United whilst Stoke had that amazing 2-0 victory over Man City. West Ham will be made to force the pace on home soil and I’m not sure that suits them in their current state. With all of the injuries to the home team I have to side with Stoke here as they should create enough chances to score at least once and I cannot say that of the home team.
AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United
Man Utd -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The greatest day in Bournemouth’s history last Saturday saw them win 1-0 away to Chelsea. United drew 0-0 at home to West Ham and I have to say although I lost money on both games I cannot say I was surprised. Who are this United team? Are they a reliable grinding team, I’m not so sure as a total of five goals in their last six EPL games (including one against West Ham, Crystal Palace and Leicester) suggests they have issues. Despite losing in midweek there were signs of creativity for the Reds so I tentatively lean to the away side here but there are better options this weekend.
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals has cashed in the last five meetings of the teams and is 9-1 in the last ten match ups in EPL action. Arsenal have won nine and drawn seven of their last sixteen trips to Villa Park as their last defeat here was in December 1998. Villa are at least showing signs of life since Coach Garde took over. I will not lay a full goal though with this fragile looking Arsenal team so soon after that big European victory in Greece. The trends tell you that Arsenal will win this game so you may want to parlay them on the Money Line with your favourite Sunday NFL bet rather than trust them to cover the one goal handicap.
Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion
Liverpool -1.25 and 2.5 goals
What a way for Liverpool to come down to earth. In previous seasons losing at St James’ Park to Newcastle would not have been a shameful result. But to his Geordie team? That 2-0 loss was hard to stomach and the failure to score will surely concern Mr Klopp. West Brom held title chasing Spurs to a 1-1 draw at the Hawthorns despite Tottenham taking the lead. The Baggies have won two of their last four trips to Anfield and of late they do not look like a team who will ship a load of goals. I love the away team and the unders here as no Pulis side with lay down and die!
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
Tottenham -1.25 and 3 goals
Over 2.5 goals has gone 8-1 in the last nine meetings and is 15-4 in all games between the sides since April 2006 but this goal line has been set at 3. Before last weekends results we may have said this would be a landslide home win. However, Spurs’ draw away at West Brom coupled with the Geordies fine 2-0 home win over Liverpool will give the Black and Whites hope they can get something from this game. Backing Newcastle on the road though is a different proposition and although it won’t be for big stakes I will take the home team to get back to winning ways. The line opened Spurs -1.5 but a move to -1.25 makes the home win far more appealing.
Leicester City v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Chelsea won both games between the sides last season and interestingly they have been one of the few teams to beat them during their great run, a 3-1 win in this fixture back in April. The Foxes keep surprising people and this is another game that will be played in a red hot atmosphere at the Walkers Stadium. Chelsea are rocking and Leicester have already shown they have no fear when taking on the big guns. Chelsea would see a point as a great result so I lean to the home dog as a line move from Pk to Chelsea -0.25 makes the home team more attractive.
