EPL Round 15
The EPL season continues to fly by and for anyone late to the party this year’s table has a few unfamiliar names at the top. James Kempton is here to provide a little reason in this topsy turvy season in the Premier League.
Looking for more information on European domestic soccer? Read Jimmy’s Goal Rush column
Stoke City v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
After losing in January 2009 1-0 City have gone six games unbeaten at the Brittania but five of those were draws before last season’s 4-1 win. That game however was the only one of their 14 EPL meetings that saw four or more goals. Under 2.5 goals is 6-1 in the teams’ meetings in Stoke so I will take the unders here to repeat in what will be a tough game for the title contenders.
The spine of Man City’s team all ruled out for tomorrow’s trip to Stoke. Buyer Beware!
— JimmyK (@ukbettingpro) December 4, 2015
Arsenal v Sunderland
Arsenal -1.75 and 3 goals
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last eleven meetings of the two teams but Sunderland frustrated the Gunners in May with the game finishing goalless in North London. In fact under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of the teams in the capital city. With players falling down injured at every turn, The Emirates currently resembles a scene from Platoon. Arsenal just need to win games and if that means winning ugly then so be it. I lean to the under here but I can’t get involved in a tricky looking match line.
Manchester United v West Ham United
Manchester United -1.25 and 2.5 goals
West Ham have already won at Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Manchester City this season, all teams currently residing in the top seven of the table, so many would think that the away team are the side to take here. This is where siding with a team purely based on stats can be problematic as all of those wins were heavily influenced by Dimitri Payet. He is out of action now through injury and the Hammers are just not the same without him in their lineup. I like United here as I think this line should be set at -1.5 so grab it.
Southampton v Aston Villa
Southampton -1 and 2.5 goals
I expected Southampton to be priced -1.5 for this game but the books appear to be tempting us in to bet a home side who are just 3-1-3 this season on home soil. Those losses were to Everton, Man United and Stoke so none were to a side as poor as Villa. Southampton have played nine games this season against bottom half placed teams and have conceded just five goals whilst Villa are 0-1-6 against top half placed sides. Even minus one give me Southampton to get back to winning ways.
Swansea City v Leicester City
Pk and 2.75 goals
Both games last season ended in 2-0 home victories but the game in Wales was played last October before this amazing run of Leicester’s began. 12-2 on the Yes on BTTS in Leicester games this season suggests there should be goals in this game but Swansea have failed to net in four of their last six matches. Recent form suggests Leicester are the play as Leicester are 4-2-0 and Swansea 1-1-4 in their last six EPL games. I shade to the Foxes on the Pk line on a pure risk/reward basis.
Watford v Norwich City
Watford -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The sides met twice last season in the second tier of English football and Norwich won both match ups by a 3-0 scoreline. There have been twenty five goals in Norwich’s seven away games this campaign. I lean to the away team and the over here as I sense Norwich will get something from this game. However I can’t trust them to keep a clean sheet in the process as they have done that just once so far this season.
West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Tottenham are only 2-3-1 away from home but their road schedule has included a trip to Old Trafford, The Emirates and, The Walkers Stadium so to lose just once is a testament to their resolve. West Brom gained a decent point away at West Ham last Sunday but they face a much tougher task in this game as Spurs have one of the strongest defences in the EPL. The talent gap between the two sides is huge so I lean to this busy Spurs side to outwork the home team and just do enough to nick it.
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Chelsea -1.25 and 2.75 goals
We saw last Sunday that we may be getting back into a more ‘Old School’ Mourinho led Chelsea in that goalless draw at Spurs. So despite the Blues going 9-5 to over 2.5 goals this season I won’t be taking the overs giving up an extra quarter goal to the norm on the goal line. The Cherries have conceded eighteen goals in their last six EPL games so if ever a team lined up ready for a pasting to get this Blues train rolling it’s this Bournemouth team. Chelsea or pass folks
Newcastle United v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.75 and over 2.5 goals
Although last season’s matches were both won by the home team to nil with a under 2.5 goals bet cashing historically there has been goals in this fixture. There have been at least two goals in all but one of the last eighteen EPL games with over 2.5 goals going 12-6 in that run. The way both teams set up makes it hard to bet the over line with any confidence yet the porous nature of the home back line makes it impossible to side with the under. You can’t trust Newcastle but giving up over half a goal on this workmanlike Liverpool side offers no appeal at all. A game to leave alone at the current prices.
Everton v Crystal Palace
Everton -0.5 and over 2.5 goals
Everton won 1-0 in south east London back in January but the last two seasons have seen two Palace wins on Merseyside and both by a 3-2 scoreline. Everton are open and free flowing to watch but they leak goals at an alarming rate for a side who claim to be making a challenge for Europe. How can you concede three goals in fifteen minutes to that Bournemouth line up? Palace under Pardew are 10-0-4 on the road since he took over in January of this year and they should have the resolve in this game to avoid defeat. Give me Palace plus half a goal.
