Vegas Top 10
Another week of college football madness and teams are on the move in the eyes of the committee for no rhyme or reason. Oklahoma allegedly controls a game where they slip by TCU (without Boykin) by a single point despite entering as 17 point chalk…interesting. Iowa moves up the rankings while being outgained by the mighty Purdue Boilermakers, fascinating. Then there’s Notre Dame that manhandled Boston College everywhere on the stat sheet but since the final score indicated a tightly contested football game Fighting Irish stock took a solid hit. Thankfully in this crazy mixed up world we have the answer key to all of the college football community’s most pressing questions; our Vegas Top 10.
| William Hill | Stations | Westgate | Cantor | Bookmaker | MGM | Todd |
| Clemson | Clemson | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
| Alabama | Alabama | Oklahoma (t-2) | Clemson | Clemson | Clemson | Clemson |
| Notre Dame | Oklahoma | Clemson (t-2) | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Stanford | Oklahoma |
| Oklahoma | Iowa | Ohio St | Notre Dame | Michigan St | Baylor | Baylor (t-4) |
| Michigan St | Notre Dame | Baylor (t-5) | North Carolina | Notre Dame | Oklahoma | Ohio St (t-4) |
| Iowa | Michigan St | Stanford (t-5) | Iowa | Iowa | Notre Dame | Stanford |
| Baylor | Baylor | Oregon (t-7) | Baylor | Baylor | Michigan St | Notre Dame |
| North Carolina | Oklahoma St | Ole Miss (t-7) | Ohio St | Ohio St | Florida | Ole Miss |
| Michigan | Ohio St | Michigan (t-8) | Michigan St | North Carolina | Michigan | Michigan |
| Stanford | Michigan | Notre Dame (t-8) | Florida | Stanford | Oklahoma St | Oregon |
After Ohio State’s ugly loss to Michigan St on Saturday, Alabama and Clemson are now share top billing among the oddsmakers in our poll. The only other team receiving votes for the second spot aside from the aforementioned Tide and Tigers is the Oklahoma Sooners via the Westgate Superbook. Once we get beyond the top three lines of the various polls the overall power profile gets a bit more muddled.
Michigan St and Iowa are finally getting similar respect from oddsmakers as they’ve received all year in the popularity polls. However, there’s no surprise that the Spartans and Hawkeyes remain absent from both my personal ballot and that of the oddsmaking team at Westgate. Call it Big Ten bias or whatever you’d like but neither side, despite their records, has a power profile in my estimation consistent with schools like Baylor, Notre Dame, Stanford, or even Oregon at this point in the season. I know people will think I’m nuts to rank teams below schools they’ve already lost to but in college football a 1 game sample size isn’t enough justification to completely alter valuations. While that definitely contributes to how the committee seeds the field, it holds little bearing on how oddsmakers set their numbers. Current form plays a bigger role in market prices and I think anyone keeping tabs on Oregon right now realizes the Ducks may be the hottest team in the country (just ask the Cardinal).
Ohio St, even with a legit no show against Sparty, remains in the top 10. It is worth considering the Buckeyes current emotional state and focus headed into this weekend’s game against Michigan before wagering. Those psychological factors are why we’ve seen a massive shift in the market from Ohio St -6.5 at this time last week compared to the current market price of PK for their trip to Ann Arbor.
Depending on which group of oddsmakers you ask the differences between UNC, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, and Florida are miniscule creating rather polarizing arguments. Each team is flawed but for the Florida Gators the thing they have going for them in the big picture is they’ll control their own national championship destiny. As you can see from the lists above there’s absolutely no consensus on the proper ordering of teams not named Alabama or Clemson right now.
Just for argument’s sake I’ve tried to map out a bit of a college football conundrum. The odds of all these independent events happening is astronomical but considering the point spread on each game in question is typically less than a touchdown there’s always a possibility a plethora of unforeseen events can play out the next 2 weeks.
- Clemson loses to North Carolina in the ACC title putting their playoff status in jeopardy as the second best team in the ACC. A logical assumption is that UNC can lay claim to inclusion with 1 loss but if the Heels lose to instate rival NC State this weekend and then claim the conference title they’re out of the discussion
- Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St and Baylor loses to TCU. Does Oklahoma St have a strong enough profile with 1 loss against Baylor to get in as Big XII champion with a paper soft non-conference schedule?
- Iowa loses to Nebraska but bounces back in the conference champion beating Michigan St/Michigan/or Ohio St: Can Iowa’s resume with 1 loss against 6-6 Nebraska keep them in the national championship discussion?
- Notre Dame loses to Stanford…Stanford beats the winner of USC/UCLA in the Pac 12 title game: do the Cardinal get in with 2 losses ahead of a potential 1 loss Iowa (conference champ), 1 loss Clemson (not a conference champ), & 1 loss conference champion Oklahoma St?
These are just a few of the potential outcomes the committee might need to balance that fateful final Saturday. I know what would come in handy if they were forced to decide among a group of teams showing no discernible differences on paper: oddsmaker power numbers!!!
Updated National Championship Futures (via Westgate Superbook)
Alabama 3-2
Clemson 4-1
Oklahoma 7-1
Baylor 8-1
Notre Dame 8-1
Michigan St 12-1
Iowa 20-1
Ohio St 20-1
Florida 25-1
Oklahoma St 25-1
Michigan 30-1
Stanford 50-1
UNC 60-1
