EPL Round 14
A full weekend of EPL action is on the docket and James Kempton is here to give you all his gambling thoughts.
Aston Villa v Watford
Pk and 2.25 goals
The big question going into this game is how on earth are Aston Villa going to score a goal? This issue will not be helped by the benching of young Jack Grealish for his off field indiscretions as he is one of the few creative players that Villa possess. The Hornets will look to keep it tight early and play on the nervousness of the home crowd so I will take a piece of the under 2.25 goals.
AFC Bournemouth v Everton
Pk and 2.5 goals
A pal of mine, Big Dave, is a staunch Everton fan and is convinced they will be a top four team in the near future. I think that is a bit over the top but they have certainly improved greatly of late. Their 4-0 win last Saturday over Aston Villa was just their first clean sheet in seven games but against that awful Villa forward line does that clean sheet even count? On a Pk line I can’t back Everton but I do lean towards the overs on the goal line.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United
Crystal Palace -0.75 and 2.5 goals
What a difference a year makes in football for Alan Pardew’s Eagles, hosting Newcastle and their under fire head coach Steve McLaren. Pardew left Palace last Christmas and the teams have been on opposite trajectories ever since. Both of last seasons’ meetings ended all square and in 2013-14 the Magpies did a double to nil but much of this was Pardew inspired. At minus three quarters of a goal I lean to the home team but only slightly as there are far better wagering opportunities to get involved with this weekend. One little footnote to be aware of going into this game is that Palace have been drawing at half time in their last 12 EPL games.
Manchester City v Southampton
Manchester City -1 and 2.75 goals
Sergio Aguero was back last Saturday for City but it did nothing for them as they were spanked 4-1 on home soil by Liverpool. The Saints have been improving rapidly over the past couple of seasons but City have covered a minus one line in each of the teams last three meetings and have won all three match ups at the Etihad since August 2012. Aguero is a sniper of a striker but if he hasn’t got his chief bullet loader David Silva in the City line up he’s not nearly as effective. If Silva is back from injury and in the starting eleven I lean towards City but if he misses out again then the value just shifts to the away dog plus a full goal.
Sunderland v Stoke City
Stoke City -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The sides have met fourteen times since October 2008 in the EPL and there has been just one away win. In fact the away team has drawn a blank in front of goal in nine of those fourteen meetings and under 2.5 goals is 11-3. I think we saw on Monday night the future for this Sunderland side in terms of how they will set up to frustrate the opposition. Big Sam will make sure his side looks not to lose the game before trying to sneak the victory. Give me under 2.25 goals as a half win could be your worst case scenario.
Leicester City v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The fresh table topping upstarts welcome the old course and distance winners who many said were not good enough or creative enough to challenge this season. Both games last season saw over 3.5 goal bets, let alone over 2.5 goal bets, cashed. Leicester have scored in every single game this season and kept just two clean sheets with over 2.5 goals going 10-3. This is a night game live on Sky and the crowd will be well lubricated for what is arguably the biggest game in the clubs’ history where Jamie Vardy could break the EPL goal scoring record. I expect United, despite their tactical intentions to the contrary, to be drawn into an open game where they will not look or feel comfortable. This will be fast, frenetic and end to end. Overs 2.5 goals looks a great bet!
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
Tottenham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
I won’t lie, as this week I have nibbled on some of the +6600 available on Chelsea to win the league! It seems crazy but we are seeing that this season anyone can beat anyone. Over 2.5 goals is on a 5-1 run in the last six meetings of the sides and the Lane will be bouncing for this game with genuine title challenging belief growing in the N17 zip code. This will be a great game to watch and I have no idea what will happen. The prices to win the league of +2200 on Tottenham and +6600 on Chelsea will suddenly look very skinny for whomever wins this game. If you have a few dollars to bet on this game I suggest you back the team you fancy to win this game to win the whole thing at huge prices!
West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United -0.5 and 2.5 goals
When James McCarthy crunched into Dimitri Payet in the recent Everton-West Ham game who knew quite what ramifications it would have on the Hammers’ season. Without Payet in their starting eleven the Hammers looked a shell of themselves last week at Tottenham. Payet is out till February and until I see evidence to the contrary I will be looking to fade West Ham. Albion turned over Arsenal last Saturday and Tony Pulis knows the Hammers are ready for the taking here in this spot. Back the Baggies on the road plus that half a goal.
Liverpool v Swansea City
Liverpool -1 and 2.5 goals
Can Liverpool win the league? Who would argue after last week’s demolition of Manchester City but these are the games at home they need to win. A comprehensive victory here would send a message to all those coming to Anfield that Klopp and the Kop mean serious business. In their last three visits to Anfield the Swans have conceded five, four and four goals respectively so it looks bleak for the Swans in this spot. I will take Liverpool to win the game but am only willing to back them straight up as I am wary of them coming off of a Thursday night Europa League game.
Norwich City v Arsenal
Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals
The sides have met six times in EPL action since November 2011 and Arsenal have scored at least two goals in five of those six games. They have covered a minus one goal line in each of the last three match ups and are still smarting from that loss away to West Brom. I sense this game will have some goals in it and lean towards the over. As per the above I am more confident taking them to win the game straight up rather than covering a minus one line and would not put anyone off an Arsenal/Liverpool Money Line two teamer.
