EPL Round 13
After a prolonged international break and well received rest, our EPL resident handicapper James Kempton is back with complete fixture analysis for the weekend. If you’re not already reading his weekly goal rush column, it’s pure gold and should be a must read for every football fan
Watford v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Watford have struggled to find the net on home soil as they’ve scored just three times at Vicarage Road this campaign. They have only conceded four goals though so against this defend first United team it looks set to be a tight low scoring game. I like the away team to do enough and lean towards the unders in this one. United 1-0 anyone?
Chelsea v Norwich City
Chelsea -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Perhaps some time away from the Bridge for many of the Chelsea players could help the mood of the camp? Last time the International Break came it seemed to work as they returned home and beat Aston Villa 2-0. In view of that I will not put anyone off backing the home favourite but I prefer the over. Forty three goals in the teams’ combined six home and away games respectively makes me take the over even though it is set at the 2.75 level.
Everton v Aston Villa
Everton -1 and 2.75 goals
Sixteen of the last seventeen EPL meets of the sides have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 11-6. Villa will obviously look to keep this game tight early on as they did against Man City and make Everton work hard for their opportunities. I tentatively lean to the away dog although Villa may attempt to frustrate the long term trends suggest the value is on the goal line with the overs.
Newcastle United v Leicester City
Leicester -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Newcastle won this meeting of the sides 1-0 in October of last season. How the fortunes of both teams have changed since then as they were priced minus half a goal favourite that day. Now they are not even favoured on home soil against a side who for long periods of last season were adrift at the bottom of the table. At these price levels it’s a game to avoid for me on the match market. Although Leicester have been bags of fun this season, 9-3 to the over 2.5 goals, I sense this may be a lower scoring encounter so lean under.
Southampton v Stoke City
Southampton -1 and 2.5 goals
The sides have met six times since December 2012 in EPL action and each game has been played tight with no victory been by more than one goal. There have been four draws and last season both meetings were won on each occasion by the hosts. I have nothing against Southampton being a favourite, half goal or even maybe three quarter of a goal, but a full goal favourite is pure madness. I will take the away team here as the best value of the week.
Swansea City v AFC Bournemouth
Swansea -0.5 and 2.5 goals
There appears to be a crisis at Swansea but I do not know why as Gary Monk has done a great job at the helm. Bournemouth are really beginning to struggle now and last time out they lost at home to Newcastle despite dominating the game. They will not dominate possession in this game and I sense it will be a very long day for the Cherries. Give me the home win here.
West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal
Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals
The teams have met in the Midlands nine times in the EPL since December 2002 with Arsenal fully covering a minus one line in only two of those games. It won’t get easier this weekend as Tony Pulis will have his side pumped up and the Hawthornes rocking to welcome the title challenging Gunners. On this line all the value looks to be with the home dog but Arsenal should at least put in a better performance than last time out at home to Spurs.
Manchester City v Liverpool
Manchester City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals is currently on a 7-0 run in EPL action with four of those seeing four or more goals. The omens are not good for the Reds as there has not been an away win when these sides meet since Liverpool won in Manchester in October 2008. City have scored at least twice in the last five straight meets at the Etihad but for this game team news will be key. Players will be assessed after coming back from international duty so be aware for the potential of back up players in key positions scuppering your wager. If the sides look at decent strength then give me the overs to cash again.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United
Tottenham -1 and 2.75 goals
West Ham have lost just once in their last four trips across London to take on Spurs. Since December 2008 under 2.5 goals has gone 7-5 with only four of the twelve games seeing at least four goals so the overs on the goal line does not appeal to me. Spurs are playing with such a vibrancy at present you have to like them to win but I’d only take them straight up as this handicap line is too prohibitive.
Crystal Palace v Sunderland
Crystal Palace -1 and 2.5 goals
It was goalless in Sunderland in March 2014 but the other three games between the sides over the last two seasons have exploded with goals. 4, 4 and 5 goals have flown in with Yes on BTTS going 3-1 and overs hitting 3-1. That feast or famine with goals makes me look towards the match line and I’m drawn to the dog. Two losses personally when backing Sunderland, both times receiving the handicap start, in two successive EPL weeks turns me off betting Big Sam’s men. If you have a shorter memory than me then they are the side to take.
