UFC 193
UFC 193 Rousey vs. Holm: Armbar in Australia
All fight analysis provided by Gamblou
Good Saturday fight Enthusiasts. Our last fight blog produced a poor result as we dove into dogs and got duped! That said, we do what we do and today’s card from Melbourne is sure to produce a few mangy mutts….our job as we understand it is to deliver live dogs so let’s go hunting for value.
Vaculik -110 vs. Martinez -110
Vaculik is 1-2 in the UFC while Martinez is 0-4. This appears to be a fight between a couple of cans but upon closer look we see a fight that will be determined by where it takes place. Vaculik is a high paced grinder who will try to get Martinez to the mat for a maul. Vaculik will have a distinct edge on the floor and that is where he intends to take this fight. Martinez returns to the 125 weight class which we feel will be an advantage for him. Danny takes this fight on a full training camp which we feel is important. He’ll own sizable advantages on the feet where his striking and power will overwhelm the Aussie if this one does not get to the floor. Which way do we go?
Martinez -110
Struve -135 vs. Rosholt +115
Struve’s size and length will be an issue for the stubby wrestler for if this is a standing affair we believe it will be a long night for Rosholt. Struve’s striking and power are what will trouble the American here if he can’t get ‘up close and personal’ with the skyscraper and take him to the floor for some fun. Struve’s porcelain chin will be hard for Rosholt to touch standing but from top position on the mat it will be most accessible. Rosholt must maul the taller Dutchman; push him against the fence and/or to the floor in order to make this as ugly and boring a ground and pound fight. That’s the recipe for Rosholt in a fight we really look forward to. We mentioned this week with Gabriel Morency on his program MMA Meltdown on the Fight Network that we already had a piece of Rosholt at +120. Looks like we left a nickel on the table….take the value with
Rosholt +115
Hall-145 vs. Whittaker +125
Here is a fight we classify as ‘must watch’. Both these Blokes want to press the action, move forward and knock the block off of their opponent. While Whittaker is the younger fighter who’s fighting at home he does give away substantial reach to Hall which in a standing, striking affair is a huge advantage. We were all over Whittaker had he faced Mike Bisping tonight but Uriah Hall is not Bisping by any stretch. Whittaker will try to bully and instill doubt in Hall for from this vantage point as well the view of the Aussie, Hall’s biggest challenge can be his own self-doubt. We happen to feel that recent momentum is such that Hall will have no issue forging forward in an attempt to instill anguish in the Aussie. From our handicapping we feel this one has little chance to go a full three.
Fight won’t go 3 full rounds -125
Rousey -1200 vs. Holm +800
Maybe it’s just us but we have never seen Ronda as edgy and without composure at a weigh-in as we did yesterday. When Bethe insulted her family before Ronda’s last fight we witnessed pure focus and calm from Rousey on the scale and after. This episode yesterday displayed (to us) more emotion, nerves and signs of concern than we have ever seen from Ronda. Is she too distracted with the numerous career opportunities and distractions going on all around her? Maybe. In any case we see Holm’s opportunity to shock the world by keeping her distance and delivering strikes as Rousey attempts to get inside and force this fight to the floor in order to tear Holms elbow out of socket. How quickly will Rousey get Holly to the mat? Will Rousey be able to get Holm to the floor? Can Holly tag the Champ coming in as she tries to establish the inside position she needs to own advantage in this fight? All of these questions will be answered tonight….until then our angle is
Fight starts Round 2 + 180
Please note….we are not in a position to ignore the price in each of these two main events and therefore we will disclose that we do have small wagers on each of the underdogs. We took each +1200 a couple days ago knowing that we were not the only ones that could not ignore those prices. We will not count the plays on our record win/lose or draw but want to disclose the angle….it’s too much for us to walk away from.
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