EPL Round 12
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Bournemouth v Newcastle United
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.75 goals
The Cherries are slowly slipping down the league and a loss here will send them into the relegation zone. Newcastle have scored one goal on the road in five games and taken just one point so it is a brave man who sides with the away team in this tricky looking match up. The under 2.75 goal line is intriguing as the home team have a few attacking injuries and the away team have a limited scoring threat.
Leicester City v Watford
Leicester -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Two teams, who to be honest I was not high on at the beginning of the season, meet here and both look to extend their good runs. I side tentatively with the home team on the match line but at -0.75 I see no real value. You have to consider though that Leicester have won thirteen of their last twenty EPL games and their two losses were only at the hands of Arsenal and Chelsea. A truly incredible run!
Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion
Manchester United -1.5 and 2.5 goals
The Baggies won 1-0 the last time these sides met at Old Trafford back in May (and 2-1 the season before) but I sense it’ll be the other way round this time. United shut Crystal Palace out last Saturday and they weathered a heavy storm to do so. There have only been eight goals scored in five EPL games at Old Trafford this season, just one conceded by the Red Devils. It’s attritional stuff at the Theatre of Dreams these days and with just five goals in Albion’s five away games this season I lean heavily to the under.
Norwich City v Swansea City
Norwich -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The sides have met six times since October 2011 in EPL action and there have been no fewer than twenty five goals in those six games. Over 2.5 goals has gone 8-3 in Norwich’s games this season and all but one game has seen two or more goals. Yes on BTTS is 9-2 in their matches so given the historical trends in this fixture I like both the over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS. Swansea are 8-8-7 since August 2013 on the road to bottom half placed sides so you can make the argument that at +0.25 they offer a smidgeon of value to avoid defeat.
Sunderland v Southampton
Sunderland +0.75 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland won 2-1 at the Stadium of Light last season when the sides met but who can forget the 8-0 drubbing the Saints inflicted on Southampton earlier that same season. However, that was Southampton’s only win in the six meetings of the sides in EPL action since December 2012. The Saints have won eight of their last twenty four EPL away games but fully covered a -0.75 line just twice as it seems if they do win on the road it is usually by the odd goal. It is hard to back Sunderland after last week but all the value on this line is with the home team.
West Ham United v Everton
Pick and 2.75 goals
There have been at least two goals in thirteen of the sides’ last fourteen meeting of the sides with over 2.5 goals going 9-3 in the last twelve. Everton are an incredible fourteen games unbeaten when the teams play in the League and the Yes on BTTS and Everton win has landed in five of their last six trips to Upton Park. There have been at least two goals in each of West Ham’s league games this season and over 2.5 goals has gone 8-3 so give me the over on the goal line.
Stoke City v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Chelsea may be low on confidence but they have scored at least twice in each of the last five EPL meetings of the sides and eight goals in their last three trips to the Britannia Stadium. Jose Mourinho is banned from the stadium for this game and by all accounts could this be a good thing for would be Chelsea backers? If the players do want to stick the knife in to their boss what better way than to win this game. In truth though this is a betting minefield and there are better options this week than wagering this match.
Aston Villa v Manchester City
Manchester City -1.25 and 2.75 goals
City have won seven of the last eight meetings of the teams and outscored the Villains 23-6 in the process. Since December 2007 though Man City have only covered a -1 line once in Birmingham, there have been two pushes and five losses. Those games have gone 6-2 to the under 2.5 goals and as City have attacking injuries they look to grind games out and we saw how they struggled to break down Norwich last weekend. You have to hold your nose and side with the home team for Remi Garde’s first game at home to at least keep it tight. Unders is the side I prefer on the goal markets as it is incomprehensible that Villa collapse defensively at home in their new boss’ first game in front of the Villa faithful.
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal -1 and 3 goals
Under 2.5 goals are 3-1 over the past two seasons EPL meetings of the sides. Spurs have won just once away in this derby since 1993 and that was the Bale/Modric Spurs side that won 3-2 back in November 2010. This line set at Arsenal minus one, are you kidding me? This isn’t the mug Tottenham side we’ve seen travel across London recent years. There is no Louis Saha, no Roberto Soldado or even a Younis Kaboul. This is a young side full of energy and high levels of technical ability. Give me that full goal and it would not surprise me if the Spurs took this on the Moneyline too.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Liverpool -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Liverpool have scored just twelve goals all season yet are priced up at over half a goal favourite as they entertain a side who always put a shift in away from home and who won at Anfield last season. This line is not good value on the home win but factoring in the Klopp effect you will not want to take the home team on. We must consider as well that it is an unusual spot for Palace to be in. This is a non 3pm Saturday kick off due to Liverpool’s Europa League involvement but it will not be broadcast live on UK television. I lean to the dog but not with any conviction.
