EPL Round 7
It’s our very own Friday Football tradition around these parts…James Kempton is here to share his take on every single EPL match for the upcoming weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.5 and 2.75 goals
City won this meeting 1-0 back in May but before that the over 2.5 goals had gone on a seven game winning streak in EPL meetings. City have also won four straight meetings and eight of the last nine. This Spurs side look busy and extremely hard working but on days it doesn’t click they struggle to create. I lean to the under and to City getting back to winning ways.
Leicester City v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.75 goals
Leicester continue to over perform and they seem heavily reliant on Mahrez to be creator and finisher in chief. Once his production diminishes they may struggle. These are the games Arsenal tend to get the required result in but I can’t back them here. The goal line looks a little high given the Gunners’ goal scoring issues so if you want to wagers here stick with the away win.
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Liverpool -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Villa won this game 1-0 last season at Anfield and last week Liverpool failed to beat Norwich priced at minus one yet here they are forced to lay an extra goal! It’s a brave or stupid man who takes the Reds here. Only two of the last twelve total meetings of the two sides has seen four or more goals so the risk/reward looks stacked to the under. Give me a piece of the unders as until I see Liverpool go over the total in one of these types of games I won’t believe it can happen!
Manchester United v Sunderland
Manchester United -1.75 and 3 goals
United won this meeting 2-0 last season at Old Trafford but that is the only game in the last eight meetings of the sides that they have won by more than one goal. The SOS went out this week on my Twitter feed as many Sunderland fans are calling for Sam Allardyce. It’s hard to lay 1.75 goals with this United side but it’s the side I’d take.
Southampton v Swansea City
Southampton -0.5 and 2.25 goals
All six meetings of the sides in EPL action since November 2012 have gone under 2.5 goals with just seven total goals being registered in those games. The last three games have ended in 1-0 away wins. It seems when they meet their similar styles cancel each other out. I will be happy to stick with the trends and take a piece of the under on the goal line.
Stoke City v AFC Bournemouth
Pk and 2.5 goals
Any time you can take Stoke at scratch against a non elite side it’s almost a no brainer bet. However they are bottom of the table and Bournemouth come here playing with no fear. I lean Stoke but until I see them win this season it is a lean with far less certainty than in recent years.
West Ham United v Norwich City
West Ham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
West Ham had that crazy away win at Man City, can they do it now on home soil? Who knows what we will get from this West Ham, maybe Bilic should take them on the London Bus Tour in the morning as they only seem to perform after sitting on a bus! My gut is telling me to back the overs and although my waistline tests to the fact I listen to my gut too often I will take over 2.5 goals.
Newcastle United v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.75 goals
The home side have won the last six meetings of the teams with Newcastle registering successive wins of 2-1, 2-0 and 3-2 when hosting the Blues. On this goal line I can’t take Chelsea as it seems they struggle in the north east and this will be a kitchen sink game for McLaren’s men. This is the late Saturday game and if the rush of money pushes Newcastle to +1 then I will definitely oppose the Costa-less Blues.
Watford v Crystal Palace
PK and 2.25 goals
This will be a fierce London derby which sees both teams coming into the match feeling pretty good about themselves. Watford won 2-1 away to Newcastle last weekend whilst Palace narrowly lost 1-0 at White Hart Lane. The away record of Palace under Pardew though is nothing short of astonishing so I will take them on this line as the value to get all three points.
West Bromwich Albion v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
It is 7-1 to under 2.5 goals since New Years Day 2012 and Everton have conceded just two goals in the last five meetings of the sides. I always like Pulis led teams in this spots receiving a start at home. It’s a tentative suggestion and if pushed I’d look to the recent trends backing up the historical trends of this game and look for it to be a low scoring match.
