UFC 191
UFC 191 Johnson vs. Dodson: Mighty Mouse vs. the Magician
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 191. We’ve uncovered what we believe are a few putrid pups patrolling Paradise road in Las Vegas today. Let’s hope these mangy mongrels are up to the task at hand tonight….delivering dog deposits.
UFC 2015: 65-77 + $1,668.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
Let’s make note of a couple GambLou.com early releases:
On 8-8-15 (Twitter) we advised taking a firm position on Paul Felder -245 claiming that by fight time his price would be -475 or higher. His opponent Ross Pearson seems to be hand chosen to face Felder insomuch as he is older than his age in fight years, is somewhat a plodding fighter, is surely slower and arrives with a breakable beak. We feel the matchmakers set this fight to get Felder back in the win column in order to capitalize on his drawing power. As of this writing Felder is -450 and may well be at our predicted price by the time the parlay patrons are done playing this fight. Felder now must accomplish his goal of winning the fight but those that followed our advice on the 8th own dynamic market advantage into today’s bout. It’s all about value.
“Price is what you pay….value is what you get.” Warren Buffett
Also released yesterday just after weigh-ins was Ron Stallings -165. While Stallings has many areas of fight improvement he is in a decent spot here. His opponent, Joe Riggs is a true MMA professional and fine person but he had a devil of a weight cut. It’s understood that Riggs experienced issues backstage after missing weight by a couple plus pounds. The disadvantage missing weight has on a fighter is something we have discussed here previously. We understand that Joe actually fainted during the late cut to make weight. All of this plus the fact that some of the sharper books eventually took this fight off the board led us to release (Twitter) a firm position on Stallings before the fight was taken off the board. We have mucho reasons to admire and respect Joe Riggs but this is a cold, hard, bottom line business we are in and the drive for profit is the only motivator and the responsibility for the bottom line overtakes all respect for any individual no matter how much we admire them…Let’s hope that in this bout and the others that all the fighters leave the cage without injury.
-Let’s Fight-
Andrade -185 vs. Pennington +175
As discussed on MMA Meltdown Radio this past week, this is a rematch of a fight that ended in a split decision for Andrade. The fight could have gone either way according to our scoring that night. The sentiment seems to be that Andrade has improved more so that Pennington. While we believe Andrade has improved we must recognize that Pennington is the much taller, larger woman who’ll own a dynamic reach advantage in this rematch. We feel the takedowns that Andrade used to earn her last win against Pennington will be addressed by the underdog in this fight and that the stand-up advantage for the pup Pennington will be the determining factor in tonight’s bout.
Pennington +175
Blachowicz -135 vs. Anderson +125
Blachowicz will own a slight advantage on the feet and while the Pole is a well-rounded fighter he is not a top ten threat in the Light Heavyweight division in our opinion. Prior to his upset loss to Gian Villante Cory Anderson was an up and coming, undefeated fighter with profuse potential who was regarded my many as having top ten potential. Apparently most feel a loss diffuses potential while we feel a loss can set up a more focused furious fighter in the next bout. Anderson got schooled by Villante and learned that he must come into fights mentally prepared and appropriately trained as his cardio left him susceptible to Villante’s late barrage. We look for Anderson to take this fight to Jan, press him and utilize his wresting base to get this fight to the floor where we feel Cory can maul the Pole to a pulp. Anderson on the bounce is our prediction.
Anderson +125
Arlovski -155 vs. Mir +145
We’re tickled to watch these two old-timers square off in the cage for what is certain to be a great opportunity to compete for the UFC Heavyweight title for the victor. Each of these fighters sports a chin as breakable as a champagne glass so the first chap that can touch the chin of the other is certain to have a great opportunity to get his hand raised. We sense a more technical bout is in store from Mir tonight for Frank knows Arlovski has punishing power and questionable cardio so Frank will want to take Andrei into the second round or better in order to have his best chance. The fact that this bout will be held in the large Octagon gives Frank the chance use space to get this one past the first 5 minutes. Frank won’t employ the same ‘toe to toe’ tactics he did to tame Todd Duffee believe me. Andrei will try to walk Frank down and use his power and heart to batter the lefty as this seems to us his only path to winning. We feel this one has potential to go past the first round….
Fight starts Round 2 -122
Johnson -560 vs. Dodson +475
Few have voiced their opinion as Johnson being the top pound for pound fighter in the UFC more than we have. That said the line for this rematch is obtuse. Yes Johnson is as well rounded a fighter as there is in the UFC and yes he is at the top of his fighting game improving with each victory but this is a very challenging fight for Mighty Mouse. Johnson will hold advantage over Dodson with his wrestling and cardio yet Dodson’s strength is striking and if there is an area of improvement for Demetrious it is in his stand up striking. We believe Dodson is every bit as fast as Johnson but sports dynamically more power as Johnson’s finishes come by submission or striking attrition as opposed to the KO (Benavidez TKO recognized). Our main reason for reaching out with JD tonight is his hunger and quest to get to the top while Johnson’s motivations are more along the line of keeping the streak alive, trying to put his name in the record books with other world class MMA artists who have successfully defended their title multiple times. To us that spells pressure and expectation. There are no tomato can fights in the UFC for title holders as the matchmakers make Champions defend against capable and competent opposition in every defense. We feel tonight Dodson will be dangerous and the price of +475 allows us to position ourselves for value with the pup.
Dodson +475 (half)
