EPL Round 4
The weekend is nearly upon us and that means one thing…EPL Week 4 is about to kick into full swing. Back by popular demand James Kempton offers his thoughts on every fixture for your gambling pleasure.
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals
Arsenal has won the last seven straight meetings of the sides, out scoring Newcastle 21-6 but I can’t lay a full goal here! Wenger’s side are under huge pressure right now and against what I see as an improving Newcastle side I see the Gunners extremely vulnerable. It’s the type of game they normally win but maybe not this week…Newcastle could do even do this straight up.
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Aston Villa -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland have failed to score in each of the last four meetings of the two sides and in six of the last seven. Under 2.5 goals is 10-3 in the last thirteen meetings. This looks a very boring game to me with a heavy draw bias. Unders is the call if I had to bet this game.
Bournemouth v Leicester City
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Two spunky sides who haven’t read the script yet this season meet here on the south coast. I think the handicap line is set about right for this match but if I was forced to have a bet it would be with a fairly open contest making over the only attractive wager.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Chelsea have not won any of the last four meetings of the sides by more than one goal. That suggests this game should be very tight, I disagree. Palace’s belief they can get a result here may end up being their downfall. Chelsea are back to winning ways and before this international break I see them winning and covering.
Liverpool v West Ham United
Liverpool -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Liverpool were excellent on MNF at Arsenal whilst West Ham’s defence looked like a sieve against Bournemouth. At the -1.5 line this is a tough call. Although we have not seen them break out yet I’d lean towards the home team even on this line but with pretty limited confidence.
Manchester City v Watford
Manchester City -2 goals and 3.25 goals
You have to think the home side will score at least twice and looking to unleash before the international break. This could get ugly if an early goal goes in and even at this market line I see a Push as the worst case scenario. Give me a little bit of the overs too.
Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion
Stoke City -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Under 2.5 goals has gone 9-3 in the last twelve meetings of the teams and nothing here makes you want to take the over. The goal line looks spot on but I would side with the home team as they seem a more stable outfit at present.
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Everton have not won any of their last seven visits to White Hart Lane and Spurs did the double last season. Tottenham need a win though and they are under some real pressure even early in the season. Given the extra pressure on the home team you could consider the away team as the value but I am staying well clear.
Southampton v Norwich City
Southampton -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Can you trust the Saints minus half a goal? I’m not so sure after their last outing at St Mary’s. I won’t be backing the Canaries on this line though as it’s a different task going to Southampton than winning at Sunderland but the away win is still the value side.
Swansea City v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Swansea did the double last season when the sides met. Each of the last eight meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals so have the books adjusted this goal line down too far for the new look United? With over 2.5 goals going 5-3 I will take a bit of the overs and lean towards the home dog.
