Fight Night 74
Searching for strays in Saskatoon
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to today’s UFC card from Canada. We are fresh and as ready to fire as some of the mangy mutts we have our eye on today so let’s get busy.
All Fight analysis provided by Gamblou (click here to follow him on twitter)
UFC 2015: 61-74 + $1,427.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Silverio -245 vs. Campbell +225
Silverio enters off a devastating TKO loss albeit at the hands of Magomedov but it’s the frame of mind as he returns against a capable striker that we concern ourselves with. Campbell is a striker who if he can keep Silverio at distance will test the will and chin of the Chalk. Silverio’s task will be to get inside and take Campbell (who has less than average takedown D and grappling skills) to the mat. The fighter that dictates pace and position will own advantage in this bout. Silverio opened a fair -160 and has been bet up to current pricing. We will ‘Swing it Easy’ with the hound that we trust has worked on his take down D (something a fighter can improve upon) as he tries to bust the Brazilian’s beak (something a fighter can do nothing about).
Campbell +225 (half)
Beal -165 vs. Kelades +145
This is a fight we discussed with Morency on MMA Meltdown Radio Tuesday night and honestly we are on an island with this position it seems. Beal surely looks the part of a UFC fighter, he is cut, brings athleticism and speed to the Octagon but his punches tend to be wide. We also feel if he has to compete past the first five minutes his cardio comes into question. In his last fight against a polished boxing based striker Neil Seery he was out grappled on the mat?! Enter Chris Kelades who is a grappling, grinding, groper. Kelades wants to smother his opponent and make it a maul on the mat. He beat Paddy Holohan on 5 days’ notice about a year ago and we all know Holohan has been on a tear since. Further he looked very good against an absolute razor blade in his last bout…Ray Borg. Beal will want to keep this on the feet for his best shot at winning and Kelades goal will be to get this fight to the floor. We feel the wrong man may be favored here…
Kelades +145 (half)
Rogerio de Lima -165 vs. Krylov +155
This is another interesting line. de Lima strikes with ferocity, power and has certain KO ability provided he connects in the first three or four minutes of any fight. He fights a kid in Krylov that is younger, taller and sports a two inch reach advantage. Those that read us know we look for these exact advantages in matchups. Krylov owns advantage here provided he can weather the early onslaught. The longer this goes the more Krylov will be able to use his length to keep the Brazilian at bay, stick and move and take control of the fight.
Krylov +155
Moroz -215 vs. Letourneau +195
Submission artist Maryna Moroz was a big dog to Calderwood in her debut win. While Moroz looked great she did so against a fighter that was an absolute emotional wreck. Now she travels to Canada to face the home town gal who’s faced better competition, is an improving fighter and has the ability to take Moroz past the first, keep this fight on the feet and test her. Moroz is unknown commodity so we must see for ourselves whether Moroz is all that the parlay players think she is. The Canadian Collie opened +130 and now we can catch her at home in from of her folk +195?
Letourneau +195
Aubin-Mercier -215 vs. Simms +195
This is another fight we discussed on MMA meltdown Radio over the last couple of weeks. These Canadian fighters are getting steamed which can translate to opportunity for handicappers scouring for value. Aubin-Mercier is an improving young fighter that has looked fine against competition that has been basically made for him. That said he’s shown us that he needs improvement in his stand-up. Mercier will want to get Sims on the mat for his best chance of winning. Sims is a fighter that arrives with a reputation for strong stand-up striking, power and precision punching. Few will argue that Sims will own advantage on the feet. What’s not universally known about Sims is that he is a fighter with a strong wrestling base. This equates to the potential to stuff the take downs that Mercier is sure to attempt. Both of these cats are southpaws which often delivers an awkward fight. Most view Sims as an ugly unwanted mutt; we view him as ready to quiet the crowd.
Sims +195 (half)
Holloway -240 vs. Oliveira +220
First let’s say that we’ve banked beaucoup bucks in previous Holloway fights. Next let’s say that the ‘Makers today don’t miss as much as they did a couple of years ago. We handicapped ‘Blessed’ less a chalk than the -165 the ‘Makers originally set him as…yet the parlay playing public has moved this fight out of whack in our estimation. Holloway is a terrific talent, a superior striker and has faced great competition. He continues to improve fight by fight and will be focused and ready for five full rounds in this main event. His Opponent Charles ‘do Bronx’ Oliveira is as polished an MMA Jiu-Jitsu artist as there is in the whole of the UFC organization. While Oliveira will absolutely sport advantage on the mat he will be giving up some expertise on the feet. That said, we feel that Oliveira is more capable in a standing fight (he does own a 5” reach advantage over the Hawaiian) than Max is if this fight goes to the mat. We believe that this fight will hit the floor. At +220 it is our position that ‘do Bronx’ represents value. We also feel that because of the competitiveness/determination of each fighter, their toughness and their pride that this fight is destined to go more than a few rounds.
Oliveira +220 Fight starts round 3 -145
Silva vs. Magny is a fight we may move on but we want more dog value. We’ll announce any play for this bout via Twitter if we decide to take action.
