EPL Round 3
We’re only 2 matches into the EPL marathon and already the pressure is mounting at Stamford Bridge with 2 lethargic efforts from Chelsea. Being in the lower third of the table is unfamiliar territory for Jose Mourinho’s team at any point but with 36 fixtures left to go hardly reason for panic. James Kempton is here with complete thoughts on every match this weekend. If the Premiership isn’t your thing, his stat packs are available for purchase here with information on England’s lower divisions.
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Manchester United v Newcastle United
Manchester United -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Man Utd have won six of the last seven meetings of the sides. They have scored two or more goals in five of those games. The line opened -1.5 and the shrewd punters piled in on Newcastle but I can’t take them personally. If this goal line stays at 2.75 then you have to take a big chunk of the unders. The Toon have conceded twice in both opening games, 2-0 correct score seems about right in this spot.
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals
There have been just three total goals in the last four EPL meetings between these sides. No on BTTS has gone 4-0 and under 1.5 goals is 4-0. I was very impressed with the pace and vibrancy with which Palace played against Arsenal last week, a much different looking attacking side than we saw before Pardew’s arrival. Sometimes though the smaller teams give it everything against the big teams and play more cautiously against the struggling sides. Stick with the unders as I can’t take Palace just yet giving up half a goal.
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Pk and 2.5 goals
All three meetings, including FA Cup, last season went over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS. Spurs did outscore Leicester 7-6. Give me the over 2.5 goals as I think Leicester’s bubble will burst sooner rather than later but on a PK line I won’t be taking Spurs.
Norwich City v Stoke City
Norwich -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Until they let me down I think I will continue siding with Stoke when they receive what I sense is the favourable side of lines. Norwich had that good win at Sunderland last weekend but that may say more about Sunderland than it does the Canaries. Stoke fought hard and pulled back well at Spurs so I have a heavy lean towards the outright draw as that would be a favourable result for both.
Sunderland v Swansea City
Swansea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Swansea have registered a victory in just 16 of 58 EPL away games yet are laying half a goal here? Be serious books! Last season saw two draws when the sides met and even this early in the season it’s become a big game for the home team. A leap of faith is required from bettors to back the Blackcats but taking the home dog is the only thing to do here.
West Ham United v Bournemouth
West Ham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The Hammers’ win at the Emirates seems like a long time ago after losing 2-1 to Leicester last weekend. Bournemouth lost 1-0 to Liverpool on Monday Night Football and were actually very unlucky in defeat. They have lost both their matches to start the year and you get zero points for being unlucky so they’d love to get points on the board quickly. At this line, like last week, I fancy the home win but given my longer term concerns for West Ham maybe we should just swerve the match completely.
West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.25 goals
The Baggies have won three and drawn one of the last four home games against Chelsea. Away to Chelsea they have only lost one game by a two goal margin in their last four visits. On this line all the value is with the home team if you ask me. Can you see his Chelsea dream crashing down around Jose? Probably not but on this line there is no value to be had on the away win even in a must win spot.
Everton v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Since David Moyes departed Goodison Park Everton has had a bleak record against City with the blues from Manchester winning three and drawing one against the Merseysiders. I don’t like giving up over half a goal to anyone at Everton but City just look to have too much firepower.
Watford v Southampton Scratch
PK and 2.25 goals
This Saints team have conceded five goals in just two EPL games this campaign. They look a different defensive proposition already this season than last but I do sense they have goals in them on the road by playing a more counter attacking style. Give me over 2.25 goals here as I can’t trust either side to keep a clean sheet!
Arsenal v Liverpool
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.75 goals
There has been at least two goals in each of the last eleven meetings of the sides with the home team dominating the results of late. This could all change here with Arsenal looking very susceptible to me when it comes to defending set pieces where I think Liverpool actually have some strengths. Liverpool has kept clean sheets this season, albeit against weaker opposition, but now that the line has shifted from -0.5 to 0.75 you have to plunge in on the away dog.
