EPL Preview
Pleased to announce that James Kempton, our EPL analyst, will be back for another season of contributions. We’ll have other big announcements regarding our soccer coverage coming in the next few days as well so be sure to stay tuned.
The season is here, well at least it will be this weekend, and if you bettors over the pond think the six months of college and NFL football is hard enough then try handicapping the nine months of the EPL grind! However, futures betting in EPL markets is far easier than the NFL simply because the chances of an outsider making a run for the title is zero. The economic might of the top teams is so great that it’s impossible to look past the top four clubs in Arsenal, Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs. Depending on which book you wager with there are a couple of other season long bets that appeal to me which you may be able to invest in as well. Here’s your analysis on how the big 4 shape up this season…in order of how they finished last year.
Before you read the official analysis, listen to the preseason podcast…
Chelsea are the defending champions managed by the legendary Jose Mourinho who is known as the master tactician. At the current market price of +160 they look too short of a price for me to tie up my money for nine months waiting to collect. Last season they avoided any significant injuries to their key players and their squad still only looks to be about 14 players deep. This philosophy of a small but very high quality squad has worked over the last couple of years for Jose so who are we to argue?
Manchester City are set an attractive price of +300 but I am not sure they have a youthful enough squad, especially defensively, to challenge on all fronts. The signing of Raheem Sterling will help them but the loss of James Milner further takes them away from a work ethic squad moving towards a team reliant on flair players. It seems a strange shift to me as last season it was those games played away from home where they were outfought which eventually cost them the title. On the striking front there still remains concerns over any sufficient cover behind Sergio Aguerro.
Arsenal have signed a decent keeper this summer in Petr Cech from Chelsea and although he is past his prime he is an upgrade to the circus acts they’ve had between the sticks of late. What kind of statement is it from Arsenal; feeder club to the big and now where over the hill players go to pick up one final cheque? Once again Wenger has failed to strengthen during the summer and by the time Alexis Sanchez is back firing on all cylinders the Gunners could be playing catch up in the table. With that in mind you Gunner backers may wish to wait to see if you can get a bigger price than the +410 that’s currently available.
Manchester United have signed players who look as though they will adapt well to the English game. Bastian Schweinsteiger will be a revelation for them whilst the purchase of Memphis Depay gives them a much needed youthful option up front. The best signing for me though is that of Morgan Schneiderlin who will cover a lot of ground in that United midfield giving them a solid base to allow the creative players to shine. A stronger squad should see them stay in the title race until well after Christmas and give bettors a real run for their +530 money.
Two other teams looked to have done good business this summer and that was Liverpool +3050 and Tottenham Hotspur +12500. Liverpool should have a better defence thanks to the signing of England defender Nathaniel Clyne from Southampton. If new signing Firminio can link in with Coutinho and further addition Christian Benteke until Daniel Sturridge returns they could force their way into the top four. Tottenham look set to continue their solid showings under coach Pochettino and his summer transfer dealings will help increase the pace of their high press style of play.
If your book covers action at the bottom end of the table then there are a couple of teams who are priced very generously to struggle and really have caught my eye…
West Ham are priced at around +800 in the UK for relegation. They look short of goals to me and with the loss of Stuart Downing their creativity appears to have dwindled from last season where they only scored 44 goals. They have not upgraded their squad and are stuttering through a Europa League campaign which should be the ideal pre season build up. They allowed Sam Allardyce to leave and replaced him with fans idol Slavan Bilic for the temperamental Croatians first spell in the EPL. They start with away games at Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City so you cannot expect any points from those games.
Leicester at +400 is great value in my book to be demoted from the EPL at the end of this season. They finished six points ahead of the relegation zone last season but that was thanks to seven wins in their last nine games where they picked up 22 points. Before that they had gained just 19 points in twenty nine game but they made full use of their weak back end schedule to avoid the drop. This season their end to the season is not so easy, they have a new coach who has been out of the English game a long time. Can you imagine a scenario where they are never even going to give you a run for your money? No, me neither!
