UFC 190
Welcome fight Enthusiasts. Tonight’s UFC slate from Rio offers interesting match-ups. There was a time not so long ago in the UFC that Brazilians fighting in Brazil were close to unbeatable as they were usually favored, fought furiously and at the end of most fights had their hands raised. Lately (and many may speculate as to why) this advantage has been eroded. Whether it is competition addressing the dominance of Jiu-Jitsu, stringent testing, or simply better matchmaking the results speak for themselves. As we view tonight’s card we see a combination of match-ups, matchmaking and styles that indicate it could be a big night for the Brazilians…except for a rowdy rumble or so. It happens that most of our selections today were released either on MMA Meltdown Radio Tuesday with Gabriel Morency or via Twitter this week as we attempted to grab line value…
All fight analysis courtesy of Gamblou
UFC 2015: 54-68 + $1,009.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Vamos Lutar-*
Hester -155 vs. Miranda +145
Hester is the more complete fighter but his fight IQ, cardio and defense are all holes in his game. We believe also that the weight cut may have been tough for he missed slightly which indicates a potentially tough travel to Brazil and certain distraction if even for an hour. If Hester uses his mind he’ll forget pride and take Miranda to the floor and make this a boring maul on the mat. Miranda (a Brazilian) has a granite chin, is a more technical striker who owns a slight power advantage and he‘ll want keep this one standing in order to have his best chance. If this does go to the cards ‘home cooking’ could well be a factor…we played this yesterday minutes after Hester missed 186 lbs.
Miranda +145 (Half)
Alves -230 vs Taleb +210
Alves (a Brazilian) is a well-rounded fighter that in our handicapping owns an advantage in both striking and grappling. He enters this fight giving up some height and reach but is 10 years the younger man. Taleb sports a good UFC record but it’s against fighters nowhere near Alves’ capability while Alves enters with momentum fighting off an impressive (if not close) decision over Alan Jouban. This fight appears to be a decent spot (understatement of the year) for Warlley designed to get the crowd revved and bring Brazilian brunt into the arena as we enter the meat of the card.
Alcantara -260 vs. Issa +240
Alcantara the striker will come fast and furious with a standing attack and try to take Issa out. Issa, who sports a fine Jiu-Jitsu/grappling game will need to weather the first four minutes of the barrage in order to test Alcanatra, take him to the floor and test his gas tank in order to take control of this bout. Issa is listed as the shorter guy but at weigh-ins (without shoes on) he was clearly the bigger, thicker man. ‘Swing it Easy’.
Issa +240 (half)
Maia -175 vs. Magny +165
“Styles make fights’ was the quote we picked up decades ago from Angelo Dundee and this fight fits the bill. Magny, an American enters this fight slicker than the mutant gel-like fluids coming out of the faucets in Rio. He is on a seven fight win streak, is the much younger man, owns a dynamic reach advantage and is taller….all components we look for when we handicap a UFC fight. That said it takes something compelling to have us stray from our measured methods. Our opinion is that even at 37 years old, Maia’s grappling, his experience and his ability to get inside to take Magny to the mat will determine this fight. This is a major step up in class for the American and while he’s fought before in Brazil he’s never fought an opponent as complete and versed in grappling as Maia. In a three round fight Maia’s gas tank should hold out and we believe that Maia has a chance to play professor and school Magny in the art of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu tonight. Maia opened -190 for a reason.
Alves/Maia 2 team parlay +125 (half)
(Released earlier this week)
Gadelha -420 vs Aguilar +380
Claudia Gadelha is as good a woman’s straw weight fighter as there is in the division having fought Champion Joanna to a razor close decision some months ago. She fights tonight in front of her home country and offers tremendous striking a complete wrestling/grappling game and plenty of explosive punching power. She will have somewhat of an advantage if this fight is close and goes to the cards. Nonetheless, Gadelha fights a competitor tonight that while making her UFC debut is far from a debut fighter. Aguilar has cardio out the kazoo and we’ll even say that this is one edge she owns tonight. Aguilar will have a speed advantage and is a terrific wrestler who by no way is intimidated of Gadelha or fighting in Brazil. In fact these two fighters are much more evenly matched than the line indicates which is why we choose to make an angle on Aguilar here. This fight is no walk on the beach for Claudia.
Aguilar +380 (half)
We were trying to obtain market advantage when took +340 a few days ago (Twitter), which only shows that we all make errors when trying to pick the opportune time to take a price! Damn
Rousey -1500 vs. Correia +1200
Much has been written, discussed and broadcast about this fight. We give Correia kudos for brass and guts but perhaps not intelligence. Correia has simply the punchers chance in this fight for she must touch Rousey on the chin in order to have any shot and making this a close fight. We believe Rousey to be a focused professional as witnessed by her calm demeanor and professionalism displayed yesterday at the weigh-ins. Scouring for value in this fight is more difficult that filtering the water in Rio let me tell you….so we focused on trying to take Ronda at her word in that we hope she batters this brawler and makes the Ref stop this one as opposed to doing what we fear….breaking Correia’s arm off of her body.
Rousey by KO/TKO 220 (half)
(Released yesterday now the price is +190, still a nice price for any swinging for the fence)
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*Vamos Lutar: ‘Let’s fight’ in Portuguese
Over the last several UFC cards dogs have been rarer sanitary conditions in Rio so with that in mind we choose to back off the amounts today, fire on some fights and hope we are in error by playing most of these fights for a half unit. Remember fight Enthusiasts, we have plenty of UFC cards remaining in 2015. Our choice is to create momentum and fire when we are ‘feeling it’.
