UFC Fox 16
UFC Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao II: Omaplatas on Oak Street
Fight analysis provided by @Gamblou
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to Dillashaw vs. Barao II. Recent fight cards have featured more favorites than your local Baskin Robbins outlet and our recent results reflect it. However, we are a stubborn lot and believe deeply in our process so with a touch of ‘gut feel’ today we will back off less and begin to get back to the ‘Swing it Easy’ approach that has served us so well. We believe we’ve spotted some spaniels on today’s card so let’s trust we have diagnosed a few horrid hounds.
Most of today’s releases were publicized Tuesday night on MMA Meltdown Radio with Gabriel Morency. We expressed then that they were ‘pending weigh-ins’. We do not always publicize the leans we broadcast on his show but in today’s case we’ll use most of what we liked Tuesday. We were able to get enhanced pricing playing these positions yesterday post weigh-ins but we’ll use current pricing from today. Please note: unless we release a position early with a price we will always work with current pricing so it sometimes pays to keep an eye on our twitter feeds to obtain at least what we believe will be market edge….
UFC 2015: 52-66 + $999.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Phillips -155 vs. Duke +145
Phillips is 0-2 and the pundits are wagering on her like they’ve already seen the fight. Our concern is that they HAVE already fought and Duke submitted Phillips. Forget about Duke’s last outing and understand that this fight basically opened a pick-em and now we can grab a feisty fighter with 5” of height and 8” of reach advantage on the bounce with some gaming value. Duke’s a desperate dog we feel will deliver. Be patient as this line could keep rising in favor of the dog Duke.
Duke +145 (half)
Wineland -120 vs Caraway +110
Striker against grappler/wrestler seems a theme today. In this fight we concern ourselves mostly with Wineland’s layoff and the fact that Caraway seems to be disregarded by most as an improving fighter. We care not who he dates to be honest. We handicap fights here.
Caraway +110
Lauzon -335 vs. Gomi +310
We respect few fighters as much as we do Joe Lauzon. Cardio, heart, exceptional grappling and grinding are his game however Joe’s taken some damage in recent fights and he can struggle with effective strikers. If this fight flails on the floor it’s Joe’s to lose but if this scrap stays standing then Gomi could connect. Gomi looked huge at weigh-ins and we feel the public has pushed this price way out of line. We’ll take a poke at the puncher here. JoLo opened -260 and now he’s ballooned to -335, modest value play here on the banger
Gomi +310 (half)
Barboza -135 vs. Felder +115
Felder looks the part but his lack of world class quality competition is a big question in our handicapping. Barboza’s answered all the questions and our only hesitation is what happens if Felder touches Barboza’s beak. This appears to be a standing affair so we see distance as the key to this fight. If Barboza can keep the raging bull at length and batter the kids legs all the advantage is his and if Felder can turn the cage into a phone booth and work inside then he will own an edge. Barboza, the younger longer man with vast experience opened -175, a number close to ours. At -135 we feel Barboza who has faced slick, quick, capable competition offers value here.
Barboza -135
Dillashaw -240 vs. Barao +200
Dillashaw’s position in tonight’s fight is vastly different than the last time these two tangled. While we respect TJ our belief is that he caught Renan fat, happy and content. This will not be the case tonight. Barao is a touch younger and sports a 3” reach advantage. TJ was a +800 dog in their last outing and every man and they Mama picked Barao to dominate. Now a year later the line is ten dollars different and those same fight ‘experts’ are lining up behind Dillashaw like he is the Pied Piper.
Barao will offer us his best tonight and we feel this is a scary spot for Dillashaw who must retain the belt as Chalk as opposed to taking the title as a terrier. Dillashaw’s striking coach Duane Ludwig has done his fighter absolutely no favors in speaking out like he has and contributing to the monumental pressure his fighter is absolutely feeling. There is something going on with Team Alpha Male, Ludwig and Dillashaw and this is the last place and time for it to surface. Barao is focused and ready to fight. We simply can’t imagine Barao a +200 dog ever or again.
Barao +200
(With dogs our advice is always to be patient and monitor the line to squeeze every penny of value possible)
