Counting Outs
If you clicked on this blog post expecting something baseball related…I hate to disappoint you but that ain’t happening. However no matter what sport you bet, from baseball to football to soccer, this piece has relevance. When looking to achieve long term success in this business, either as a professional or a casual bettor, getting the best of the number is essential. With football right around the corner meaning high season for most American bettors, identifying new “outs” should become a major priority.
“Outs” is industry jargon for having a place to bet. The best bettors in the world do everything in their power to make sure betting limits don’t stand in the way of their ability to get down enough money on a game. Casual bettors don’t have the need to spread 100k on a game and subsequently aren’t stressing about having 50 active books during high season but relying on just one book even for a $20 bettor becomes a recipe for failure. We all go about different means of getting down our action; Vegas, local bookies, PPH shops, offshore etc; having the ability to bet into the best numbers is directly correlated to long term success. There’s simply no reason for a bettor expecting results not to have access to a variety of different numbers on every single game. While I know regularly betting in Vegas isn’t an option for 99% of people reading this there’s no reason keeping money in 3 to 5 trustworthy offshore books during football season can’t become a possibility.
The idea is simple; identify a handful of books that you know cater to bettors of different abilities offering you a variety of prices. Recreational sportsbooks shade their numbers towards favorites, giving you the ability to grab an extra half point or more sometimes when seeking out a live dog. Sharper shops with larger limits offer the truest position in the market, serving as a great indicator of how professionals have chosen to attack a particular game. Often times those sharper shops hang their numbers earlier than recreational books giving you the chance to attack the market first. The other perk that exists here is they’ll typically allow you more extensive options including props, derivatives, and competitive money line pricing. Then there are the mid-tier books offering the best of both worlds; a bit slow on the draw when steam hits the market meaning you’ll still be able to grab that number you were previously on the fence with before it disappears completely. Also try to identify a book that offers reduced juice as well but for some this can be much more difficult without access to the biggest international books that are reluctant to book American customers.
Here’s a great list from SBR on where you should be looking to put your money down this fall
Whether you’re a weekend warrior or aspiring advantaged player when it comes to sports betting, winners are hard enough to come by so don’t let lack of outs be the reason you take a bad number turning a potential win into a loss.
