Fight Night 70
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the dog days of summer. Just a mere 6-7 years ago we could be found banging our heads against a brick wall of regular season hardball. We choose to utilize the regular season of hardball as data for our Playoff Profits and survive these 114 degree days by bringing our own heat…..in the UFC.
Fight analysis provided by @Gamblou
UFC 2015: 46-49 + $1,745.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
Just a note on this UFC fight card as it’s undergone numerous changes. UFC visa issues, late replacements, and debuting fighters have had a major effect on this card, an effect we believe may well lead to profitability. When we use the term, ‘Swing it Easy’ this is the situation we point to. It’s our opinion that neither Abbott, Costello, the ‘Makers nor the public playing parlay pundits have any idea how these fights are going to play out. To be honest we’re not so certain we have an empirical idea of how these fights will transpire but the one thing we have come to trust over almost 4 decades in this business is our ‘Gut feel’. Today our ‘Gut’ says, hold the club loose, ‘Swing it Easy’ and ‘fade’.
-Let’s Fight-
Montgomery -110 vs. Sims +100
The southpaw Montgomery is some guitar player from a rock n roll band. He’s 5” taller, 5 years younger and sports a dynamic reach advantage over his opponent. Numbers all check out. It’s our business to notice that Montgomery who will be the much bigger man in the octagon tonight opened -185. What’s on second?
Montgomery -110 (half)
Oliveira -430 vs. Merritt +380
Oliveira is off a good looking victory and we know absolutely zero about this kid Merritt except to say that he steps in relatively short on notice and shorter on fight resume. Cowboy did just fight on the 5-30 card and we feel he is getting too much respect for his dynamic showing against Burns two back. Merritt opened +250 and now we can grab another 1.30 of value by fading the all-knowing public. Both Joe Merritt and Uncle Louie will be ‘Swing it Easy’ in this one. Why….He’s on third!
Merritt + 380 (half)
Dias 190 vs. Makashvili +180
These two match-up similarly in a physical sense except Levan is the younger fighter which may well convert to a cardio edge. While Dias may sport experience we feel Makasvili is skilled enough to make this one much more competitive than the line indicates for he is the improving fighter of these two. We saw some feistiness out of Levan in the weigh-ins that we liked.
Makasvili +180
Larkin -210 vs. Ponzinibbio +190
This is Larkin’s second fight at 170 and everyone is willing to give him world beater status after a TKO of a guy in John Howard that was made for him both physically and stylistically. Ponzi will be the taller, bigger man here. He is a banger that will meet Larkin in the center of the octagon for what we feel is going to be a toe to toe throw down. Ponzi opened up a fair +135 and now we can grab him with added value against a guy that is 2-3 in his last 5.
Ponzinibbio +190
Machida -175 vs. Romero +165
Lyoto is off a violent loss from Rockhold just some 70 days or so ago. He’s turning right around because he is a fighter and fighters fight. Lyoto is not only a bit older in fight years than his 37 years of age but his skills have waned as age and a more intense testing system has come into fruition in the UFC. Romero 38 himself is a world class wrestler and we have always maintained that world class wrestlers are a Jiu-Jitsu fighter’s kryptonite. That said, Lyoto is really more a karate fighter than BJJ man and his style seems well suited to stay outside, strike the raging bull as he charges in and slice him up. The smaller Octagon is a major factor in this fight for it gives dynamic advantage to Romero who wants to fight ‘the Dragon’ in a phone booth yet it’s the cardio history of Romero that provides our hesitation here. We’ve been leaning Yoel all month long but in this fight we will choose to exercise a little patience and see how our early results fare. If we move on this fight it will be released via Twitter because I don’t give a darn….who is our shortstop!
-Swing it Easy-
