UCL Preview
The pinnacle of European club soccer takes place Saturday from Olympiastadion in Berlin, pitting the class of much maligned Serie A, Juventus, against Spanish blue blood FC Barcelona. For such a big game we brought in a new guest posted to share his take on Saturday’s big match
Analysis provided by Ryan Faulkner
After a long wait, it’s finally here. The Champion’s League final will be played Saturday in Berlin. These two sides have taken completely different approaches to arrive at this final tilt. Barcelona have what many consider the world’s best attack while Juventus come in sporting the tournament’s best defense (as of Thursday morning they will be without the services of Chiellini due to a calf injury which moved the line .18 cents in Barca’s favor). Before we get to the picks, let’s take a look at what each side brings to the table and why they can win.
We start with the Spanish side who come in with the three-headed monster attack of Messi, Suarez and Neymar. Barca have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of the last 10 matches and are coming off of a 3-1 triumph over Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Ray final and yet another La Liga title. This is a side that have not been held to a clean sheet since February 21st when Malaga found the net at 7 minutes and then proceeded to play 10 men behind the ball for the remaining 83 minutes. Expect Barca to be aggressive on the attack, especially early, as if they can get Juventus down a goal it will pull Juve out of their comfort zone of playing back on the counter and force the Italian side into offensive aggression that doesn’t suit them. If Barca are successful in doing so, it could open the gates for a flurry of goals which would effectively put the match out of reach for the Italian side.
Why Juventus can win…
Juventus bring their dominating defense into this match having conceded more than 1 goal in only 1 of their past 8 matches. Additionally, Juve have only conceded 7 goals in 12 Champions League matches and have held their opponent to a clean sheet in 6 of those 12 matches. The weakness here is the front line, however it is still an above average attack with Tevez leading the charge. If Juve can score first, they can play to their strength, sitting back and countering to grind out a victory in the process. As for Chiellini being out, this should not have the effect that the masses are led to believe. Juve play defense as a unit better than any other squad that I have seen in this tournament. It is not as if they will be a man down from the start; they’ll simply insert a different cog into the machine.
Breaking down the total…
Before I get into a side prediction in this match, let’s take a look at the goals market. In a match of this magnitude, the primary objective is to not lose the match early and in my opinion the first to concede a goal is in trouble. I expect Juve to play back early knowing that they can ill afford to concede first. Barca will be aggressive but will not over commit early for fear of being beat on the counter. The first goal is massive in huge matches and I expect the first goal to come later rather than early.
Under 1 (-106) First Half
And the winner is…
After the news of the Chiellini scratch broke, Barca moved another 20 cents to around -170 across the board. In a match that I expect to be close and decided late, I cannot avoid the value of Juve on the spread and will also take a smaller stake in Juve to win (DNB- draw no bet) at the enticing long odds.
Juventus +1 (-118)
Juventus PK (+356)
(*Note, when wagering on this match the DNB wager only applies to regulation and should not be confused with team to lift the cup which is the winner after potential extra time and penalty kicks)
