Vegas Perspective
The NBA finals tip off tonight and the competition won’t be reserved for just the players on the court. Bettors around the world have been plunking down their gambling dollars on both sides of the series wager creating a huge divide between the Pros and the Joes. Depending on where you look the series price has ranged from as high as Golden State -275 / Cleveland +235 at Westgate Superbook compared to a line that dipped as low as Golden State -190 / Cleveland +165 at the MGM Mirage properties late Wednesday night. The difference of opinion between the professionals and the public isn’t new but sportsbooks hanging such a wide range of prices reflects how differently everyone sees the potential outcome.
“So far our action has been Cavs, Cavs and more Cavs…….seeing money on the Cavs in game 1, on the ML in game 1, and to win the best of 7 series,” Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Director at Sunset Station, told me about the betting pattern he’s seen emerge at his properties. Stations is a large casino corporation here in Nevada known for catering to more of a recreational betting clientele at their various statewide locations.
Stations wasn’t alone when it came to the flood of Cavaliers money early and often regarding series wagering. In a press release issued by Michael Grodsky of William Hill late last Friday, Grodsky indicated a similar trend taking place at his properties from the moment William Hill posted a series price.
Since NBA Finals Series wagering opened on early Thursday morning (May 28th), bettors have been continuously flooding the windows with Cleveland Cavalier wagers. The Cavaliers opened as a +210 underdog to defeat the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers’ Series Money Line price has since dropped to +185 after 89% of the tickets and 63% of the total $’s wagered have been on the underdog.
Now there needs to be a caveat regarding the initial surge of money that entered the market amid bettor speculation that Klay Thompson could potentially be limited for the series with concussion like symptoms. Since the initial health scare at the end of the Rocket series, bettors now know Thompson will be close to 100% when Golden State attempts to bring its first title back to the Bay since 1975.
When I spoke to Jeff Sherman of the Westgate Superbook on Tuesday he shared the same betting narrative as both Esposito and William Hill but sounded like he enjoyed the steady flow of Cavs money. Sherman went one step further to help explain the betting trends taking place at his property.
“The public has been in love with Cleveland right from the start but our sharper customers are on the Warriors. We went as high as -240 on Golden State to keep pros from laying the favorite at our property.”
Clearly Sherman and his colleagues at Westgate welcomed Cavs money meaning a Warriors title creates their best possible outcome regarding series liability. The battle between professional and public bettor in the market isn’t a new trend. Value comes in a variety of forms and for a NBA Finals with plenty of star power, opinions on both sides are pretty polarizing.
“Love LBJ or not he will be the reason this will be a good final from a betting perspective. He’s the one everyone is tuning in to see; sort of like Tiger wearing the Red polo on the final day of a major when he was always in contention. People are going to watch and bet based on the name brands and having an offense minded team like the Warriors in it with superstars of their own is a great thing for our books,” Esposito added
Esposito even went as far as to don his handicappers hat for a quick breakdown of the series mentioning that although both coaches are rookies (first time since the inception of the NBA 2 rookies will square off in the finals) he gives a slight advantage to Kerr since he’s been in the finals and won a title as a player. Esposito also mentioned Lebron’s 2-3 record in the finals during his career mentioning added pressure for Lebron trying to bring Cleveland it’s first NBA title. “We all know about the drive, Jordan over Ehlo and the Marlins beating the Tribe!” he told me with a grin on his face.
Regardless of what side you elect to back with your wagering dollars or if you approached the series handicap with aplomb of a seasoned veteran or bet purely on gut feel, the star studded finals sets up to be the perfect way to wrap a NBA playoffs that has largely lacked drama this entire spring.
My Bet: Golden State -200 and would lay up to -220 depending on your outs.
