Triple Crown
Kentucky Derby Jay is back to break down the Preakness fresh off his match-up sweep at Churchill and his near misses at the top of the board. There isn’t anyone in the business better at handicapping the biggest races that comprise the triple crown.
American Pharoah proved to be deserving favorite in Louisville two weeks ago, winning the Kentucky in impressive (albeit comparatively slow) fashion. Next up in the quest to end thoroughbred racing’s long Triple Crown drought is the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore. American Pharoah will enter the race as the prohibitive favorite, but his two closest finishers in the Derby — Firing Line and Dortmund — also return to challenge. Only five others join them, making this quite the small field. Let’s look at the competitors:
Tale Of Verve: One of the three new shooters in the race, and by far the worst. Way outclassed, and far too slow. Absolutely no chance.
Bodhisattva: Represents the local interests, and exits a win over the track in the Tesio in his last start. These types have sometimes hit the Preakness board at big odds. A candidate for third or fourth, but not much else.
Divining Rod: The last of the new shooters. Hasn’t done much wrong, finishing a respectable 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby to Carpe Diem, followed by a win at Keeneland in the Lexington. Was eligible for Derby field, but connections opted to wait for this spot. Looks like a nice second-tier colt in this crop, but is likely out of the element today. Would need a career-best performance to best this field, and while it’s not out of the realm of possibility, I’m siding against.
Mr. Z: Wasn’t much of a factor in the Derby, yet here he is again at Pimlico, albeit under acrimonious circumstances. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas essentially engineered a sale of the horse because the prior owners wanted no part of rolling Mr. Z back in just two weeks. Calumet Farm bit, and now here he is. I expect him to be forwardly placed today, and more of a pace factor, but I’m of the opinion he has no business in this race, and I see him finishing in the bottom two.
Danzig Moon: Was an even fifth in the Derby. Had a nice rail trip, and was clear for the stretch run, but was able to close no ground on the leaders. If he proved anything, it’s that he can get the distance with no problem. Seems to be the choice of most who are looking for an alternative to the top three; however, he was a clear five lengths behind those guys, and will need to figure out a way to make that up. Some have suggested that he change his tactics and attempt to close with one big run. Two problems with that strategy: 1) He’s never run that way, and 2) That tactic rarely works in the Preakness. Seems destined for another middle-of-the-pack finish.
Firing Line: All this guy does is show up and run fast races, and I celebrated him as a major threat in the Derby — he justified my confidence with a strong 2nd place finish. However, he’s beginning to look like one of those horses that just has a problem with winning. He’s 2 for 6 lifetime, with four 2nd place finishes. Three of those have come to American Pharoah and Dortmund. They were all close, and Firing Line was ahead in the stretch in all three races. I’m not writing him off, but second-itis is a very real affliction among some horses, even the best.
Dortmund: I sided him against him in the Derby, and his 3rd place finish was slightly better than I expected. Stablemate of the top choice, and wouldn’t it be something if Baffert’s Triple Crown chances were ended by another Baffert horse. Last time that happened was 1995, when Lukas’ Timber Country beat his Derby winner Thunder Gulch at Pimlico. I’m still not sure what to make of Dortmund’s Derby, as the race seemed to unfold perfectly for him. The pace was brisk, but not suicidal. Dortmund was controlling the race down the backstretch, and didn’t look to be expending a lot of gas. Perfect setup to turn on the backburners in the stretch, and cruise to victory, right? Well, he didn’t fold his tent, but when American Pharoah and Firing Line came for him, he was no match, and he nearly gave up the show money to Frosted. I have no doubt that with the right setup, he can find a way to win today…but the simple truth is that he is probably is just the 2nd best horse in his barn, and I think that will be proven again today.
American Pharoah: Derby winner drew the rail here, but I don’t think that carries the negative baggage a Derby rail draw does. In fact, in a field this small, it likely carries a tactical advantage. Victor Espinoza should have some options, as AP has plenty of speed out of the gate. If the lead is there for the taking, I won’t be surprised at all if he grabs it, but I’d be no less surprised if he’s content to drop in just behind Dortmund or Mr. Z. Either way, he should be able to get a very comfortable ground-saving trip. This race seems to set up perfectly for him — the most talented horse with a favorable pace scenario to boot. There just aren’t many negatives, but a fourth race in nine weeks might be one to cause some concern. Still, if he runs to his recent form, he’s not losing today, although three weeks from now in New York might be a different story. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, and I think he enters that race with a chance at the Triple Crown.
The Way I See It: 1)American Pharoah, 2)Firing Line, 3)Bodhisattva, 4)Dortmund
Recommended Head to Head Matchups (3-0 in Derby):
Bodhisattva +135 vs Mr. Z
Bodhisattva -165 vs. Tale of Verve
Firing Line -115 vs. Dortmund
