Fight Night 66
UFC Fight Night 66 Edgar vs. Faber: Muay Thai in Manila
Fight analysis courtesy of GambLou
Good day Enthusiasts. Saturday’s UFC fight card occurs in the wee hours (7AM EST/4AM PST) from Pasay City in the Philippines. We scour these cards for live dogs and feel we have spotted several strays stranded in the streets of Manila.
Last week we realized a 2-1 +$90.00 result. Vick (+170) started the day with his upset win followed by Tavares’ setback <130> before we were able to add to our net profitability with a half unit win on the prop position ‘Miocic/Hunt starts Round 3’. Anytime we can pull profit from a card and add to our bottom line we bank it then move forward.
UFC 2015: 29-35 + $557.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display our profitability while providing our readers with 100% transparency).
-Let’s Fight-
Guangyou -115 vs. Wee -105
We liked Guangyou’s chances prior to weigh-in based on the fact that we view him as the more skilled, well rounded fighter. Wee is simply a one dimensional grappler who arrived to weigh-ins a couple pounds over the limit. This translates to us as distraction and lack of focus. As soon as we saw him miss weight we jumped Guangyou -105 for if you study your ‘Fightmetrics’ you’ll know the advantage missing weight gives an opposing fighter.
Gaungyou -120 (half)
Lima -170 vs Li +150
Lima has seen the better competition but he has not necessarily shown us much heart. Lima is in on short notice and is the longer man but his chin is questionable. While Jingliang Li does not have abundant power he is a hard working grinder….exactly the type of fighter that can deal Lima fits.
Li +150 (half)
Johnson -130 vs. Zhang +110
We feel this is a set up fight for Zhang as the UFC is placing a guy in the Octagon with him that has a chin that is fragile as glass. Johnson is talented and will want to use footwork and athleticism to keep away from Zhang but we feel it is only a matter of time before the lefty can touch Johnson and send him to the brink.
Zhang +110 (half)
Nam -175 vs. Nover +155
Nam ‘the Korean Bulldozer’ has the best name on the card but names don’t win fights. Nam is a forward charging aggressive power puncher that will try to knock on Nover’s noggin. Nover makes a return to the UFC which we feel is the key to this fight for he has worked diligently to get back and he is more than ready to get this fight into the later rounds where we feel he will own a great advantage over the cardio challenged Bulldozer. This is not the same Nover that was released from the UFC a couple years ago.
Nover +155
Magny -130 vs. Lim +110
This is our ‘Styles make Fights’ bout of the morning. Magny is a precision well rounded fighter on a recent tear through this welterweight division. He will want to shoot into Lim’s limbs and take him to the mat for his greatest advantage. Lim however will be the first fighter to face Magny that is as tall and long (almost) as Magny. We feel this size similarity will be a great challenge to Magny who is used to owning great size and reach advantages over recent opponents. Lim is an extremely aggressive striker with killer knee’s (Magny should be careful firing in on Lim) that we feel will not be so easy to get to the canvas. Lim sports epic heart and grit and opened -150 in this fight. Lim at a plus price is a live Labrador in this spot.
Lim +110
Barnatt -155 vs. Munoz +145
Boy does this fight stink. If Munoz shows up looking like he did in his last he will be put to pasture quickly. If he shows up ready to hug the 6’6” Barnatt and wrestle him from tight quarters he has a chance to retire with a ‘W’ in front of his native people. This one is dangerous though for Barnatt as the much younger, taller, longer guy he has underachieved in his most recent fights and this seems to be a spot set up for Munoz to look good on his way out the door.
Barnatt -155
Edgar -450 vs. Faber +360
We respect both of these fighters as world class guys. Frankie has been in wars with world class fighters and has shined….especially recently. Faber is moving up in weight for this fight which may well be an advantage for him as we feel he will enter this bout fresh and ready to fire for 5 full rounds. At the end of the day, we just can’t make Frankie such a huge chalk in this spot understanding Urijah’s prowess on the mat. Faber is one hell of a submission guy and he is not Cub Swanson so Frankie will not have as easy a time with Urijah on the floor. Frankie has looked so good for so long we just feel that perhaps he is ready to arrive for a fight and be a little ‘off’. The UFC makes fighters compete with World Class talent fight after fight which can take its toll on anyone. Just ask Anthony Pettis. These two are very evenly matched physically…..the only thing that is off seems to be the price yet we are too spooked to play it at this point…..keep an eye on twitter for if we are rolling into this min event we may choose to ‘Swing it Easy’ with the California Kid…
GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming
