Run for the Roses
Every now and again you identify a specialist who excels in a unique handicapping discipline. I won’t sell our author short in his abilities for other sports but around these parts he’s come to be known as the horse whisperer during triple crown season. You can follow him on twitter @KyDerbyJay, a name that’s well earned over the years. Here’s his thorough analysis of where you should be investing around 6:24 eastern this Saturday at Churchill downs.
For those new to wagering on horses, (specifically reading Jay’s analysis for the first time), he goes through the painstaking effort to share what horses are worth including in your exotics (exactas, tris, and supers) along with his pick to win the race. If that’s not enough, there are a few matchup suggestions as well which may resonate more with the traditional sports bettors. Whether you watch the race for fun or profit, throw back a few mint juleps and enjoy the analysis of one of the industry’s most unheralded experts.
Horses I Will Be Tossing From All Bets:
Far Right: Does have the best Timeform Late Pace Rating in the field, but otherwise just looks too slow for this field. Could benefit from a complete pace breakdown, but I won’t be using him.
Itsaknockout: Badly overmatched in his last start, and was trounced. Looked promising at one point, but a horse does not factor in the Derby off such an atrocious last start.
Keen Ice: Way too slow for this crew, and even with a significant improvement would still be lucky to crack the top half of this field.
Ocho Ocho Ocho: Too slow, and is up against a negative pace scenario, and a horrible post position. Strong candidate to bring up rear.
Tencendur: Improved by leaps and bounds in the Wood Memorial, earning lifetime speed figures significantly higher than anything he had previously posted. A similar effort would leave him in the mix here, but I don’t see it. Seems as obvious a candidate for a bounce as you will ever see. Plus, doesn’t look bred to get the 10F, and has never ventured outside New York. Not seeing it.
Frammento: Drew into the field after Stanford scratched. Overmatched and too slow.
Mubtaahij: Almost assuredly will have the shortest odds of anyone in this group, but that’s all the more reason to exclude him from your wagers. The Dubai to Kentucky route hasn’t proven successful yet, and he’s not even close to being as good as some of the prior Dubai shippers. Not only is that transition a lot to ask of a three-year-old, but this guy is just too slow for this field. Getting a lot of undeserved hype. Toss toss toss.
Horse Worth A Look Underneath In Exotics:
El Kabeir: Has been up and down thru a busy career so far, and I was initially inclined to include him in the tosses. But I think he’s eligible for some improvement here, and gets a positive jockey switch to Calvin Borel. Don’t particularly like his chances to hit the board, but not completely dismissing the possibility.
War Story: Really only worth a look if you think the pace will completely collapse. The 10F shouldn’t be a problem, but he’s likely too slow. Will pass a few in the lane, but doubt it’s enough to hit the board.
Mr.Z: Finally woke up with a decent effort in his last start, and I think he could improve further at very juicy odds. Worth using on your deepest exotic tickets.
Upstart: There are a lot of things to like. A huge 2YO foundation. He’s a darling of the Thorograph devotees. Had plenty of excuses vs. Materiality in the Florida Derby, and because of an extremely wide trip, he very well may have been the faster horse that day. But therein lies the rub…this guy can’t stop going wide. Five straight extremely wide trips is a pattern that can’t be overlooked. This is a horse that very well may be his own worst enemy.
Danzig Moon: Included in this category strictly on visuals, as I have heard many folks I trust implicitly, rave about how he looks on the backstretch this week. He’s clearly an improving sort, but is probably a rung below the best of these talent-wise.
Frosted: Looked pretty bad in Florida over the winter, but woke up in a big way when he headed to New York for the Wood Memorial. There is plenty to like, and I wouldn’t argue with you if you tried to make a case for him winning; but I just have a nagging feeling that’s he going to bounce off that last effort. Additionally, I don’t trust Joel Rosario in a twenty-horse field even slightly; think he will score a big win in 2015 at some point, but I don’t think it’s Saturday.
International Star: This is one who I love his chance to hit the board, but don’t think he’s going to win. Did very little wrong in Louisiana over the winter, and is certainly going to be running late. The thought here is that he’s a bit too slow to get up for the win, but he should stay the trip without a problem, and will be a passing a lot of horses in the stretch.
Horses I Will Be Passing On Solely Because Of Value:
Carpe Diem: He’s a talented colt no doubt, and is certainly bred to get the distance. The problem is that he’s a little bit slower than the fastest of these, and is likely to be sent to post with odds much lower than what I perceive they should be. I don’t hate him, but I won’t be using him.
Dortmund: No denying the talent of this guy, but from a figure-standpoint, he’s kind of stagnated, and hasn’t popped up a freakish number that would justify his hype. Baffert obviously knows what it takes to win this race. My main concern here is that he’s had pretty favorable pace setups throughout his career – something he is highly unlikely to see on Saturday. He may very well be a superstar who can overcome that, but it will be at fairly low odds, and I’m not inclined to take that shot.
Horses I Consider Strong Contenders:
American Pharaoh: Basically you have to love everything about this horse but the price. Lost some training time earlier this year, but came back with a vengeance once he finally got on the track. Delivered an absolute freakish performance in the Arkansas Derby. He’s a very fast horse that is likely to win this race with his best effort. But that best effort (or a big bounce) will come at very short odds, and for that reason alone, I cannot recommend him as my top choice.
Bolo: His last race against Dortmund was a deceptively solid effort; he was way wide, while Dortmund saved ground, and very well may have won that race with a better trip. There is some chatter about how he’s just a grass horse, but I’m not going to hold that against him, as there are a number of horses with a solid grass foundation who’ve fared exceptionally well at Churchill, Animal Kingdom being one noteworthy example. He has a fantastic trainer, impeccable breeding for this race, and appears to be improving with every race. I have very little doubt he’s going to be doing his best running in the final ¼ mile, and he has a big chance to crash the exotics party at a very nice price.
Firing Line: He’s done very little wrong in his career so far, and has gone toe to toe with Dortmund on two occasions. Comes into this one off a six-week rest, which is the biggest of anyone in the field. He’s very fast, and is likely sitting on a career-best number. I love the experience of Gary Stevens in the irons, and has an astute trainer in Simon Callaghan who’s managed his prep campaign very deliberately. Has valuable tactical speed, and is unlikely to get sucked into the speed dual up front. This guy is a very strong contender to wear the roses on Saturday nite.
The Horse Who I Believe Will Win:
Materiality: He’s undefeated, but the presence of the Baffert duo is absolutely allowing him to fly under the radar. He’s fast, freakishly fast. The main concerns are inexperience — he’s run just three races, and none as a 2YO — and the possibility that he may bounce off the monster Florida Derby effort. I’m actually taking a different tact here, as I think the inexperience can be a positive. I view him eligible to make an improvement here, and even a slight improvement is likely good enough to win this race. He’s bred to run all day, and seems capable of deploying some very useful tactical speed. He very well be the most talented horse in this field, and he’s likely going to be the fifth or sixth choice at around 12 to 14-1. I love his chances, and he is my top selection for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Recommended Matchup Plays:
Materiality -130 over Mubtaabij
Materiality +110 over Carpe Diem
Firing Line -110 over Frosted
