UFC 186
UFC 186 Johnson vs. Horiguchi: Catchweight’s in Quebec
Good day Enthusiasts. We believe that it is our role to scour these UFC cards for value and catch canine’s capable of cashing for it is our manifest to manage mangy mongrels on these fight cards and convert results into profit.
All fight analysis provided by Gamblou
Our recent UFC results coupled with what we believe is a substandard fight card has us taking a very measured and conservative approach to today’s fights. We take our own advice when we hit a rough stretch so our choice today is to perform even more comprehensive Due Diligence, continue to practice supreme Selectivity and reduce our wagers exercising meticulous Money Management.
We’ve been profitable at Sports Gaming for decades and it’s because we back off when we are experiencing difficulties and we flex when we are riding dirty Sally. The fact is that there is tremendous UFC opportunity ahead in 2015 with stellar fight cards available so no need for us to get impatient. ‘Swing it Easy’ implies no gripping so we will do as we practice and forge ahead in measured fashion.
UFC 2015: 27-31 + $672.00
Aubin-Mercier -370 vs. Michaud +330
If we were going to make lines based on future potential then this line would make some sense to us. However in this TriStar vs. MMALab matchup we feel these two grappling based fighters are like mirror images of one another. Michaud is fighting for his UFC career and we feel owns an advantage over the home town kid on the feet. Olivier is off a loss and fighting in front your fans does not always equate to advantage. We handicap this fight much closer than what we see as of this writing so our advice is to allow the parlay playing pundits to continue to drive this line up….wait and catch every dime of value on this dirty dog.
Michaud +330(half)
Laprise -390 vs. Barberena +350
This is the second straight fight that the UFC is staging in order to highlight Canadian fighters with matchups that on paper favor the home town tusslers. And again this is a TriStar vs. MMALab matchup. In this fight we’ll acknowledge that the favorite has an edge on the feet as he is a top end striker. Laprise is in against a taller underdog in Barbarena who’s younger, owns a slight reach advantage, is a southpaw and is tougher than a two year old hockey puck. This is another play the public is simply counting on for their parlays…..again be patient in order to gain every dime of value on this mangy mongrel.
Barberena + 350 (half)
Bisping -145 vs. Dolloway +135
Michael Bisping is a true professional MMA fighter. He is also five years older than his 31 year old opponent. Bisping however is shorter, older in fight years than his 36 years and giving away a 4” reach advantage. Mike sports a right eye that is not 100% and while it is cold to mention we happen to be in the fight handicapping business where vision is important. Bisping will want to keep this fight standing where he will have early advantage while the underdog will want to mix up the attack but without question get the older ‘Count’ to the floor for a maul and brawl in order to gain his edge. This is our Angelo Dundee, “Styles make fights’ matchup of the card for if C.B. can get this to the floor he will win and if Mike can keep it standing he will own advantage. Our take is that the dirty Doberman will grind Bisping down and win this fight.
Dolloway +135
Johnson -850 vs. Horiguchi +650
Mighty Mouse Johnson is the most underappreciated professional athlete in modern sport if you ask us. This kid is fast as lightning, technically sound, precise as a surgeon and has dominated every challenger they have put him into the cage with. We cannot express enough how talented this young man is but with all of that said we feel this is a dangerous spot for the Champion (See Barao vs. Dillashaw). This is the fight game and while Johnson does a great job of maintaining focus he is not a -850 chalk over this young challenger the way we handicap fights. Horiguchi is mainly a counterpuncher, he’s going to be the larger man tonight, he is younger and every bit as fast as the Champion. Johnson wants to take this fight to the floor and dominate the more inexperienced fighter while we believe that Kyoji’s best chance here is to keep this fight standing. Demetrius understands this without question. The challenger has more power and better than a ‘punchers chance’ if this fight remains standing for any amount of time. At +650 (or better) we’ll play a pittance on the power puncher but understand that is will be a minimal wager no matter our profit status going into this fight.
Horiguchi +650 (minimal recreational position)
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