Fight Night 65
UFC FN 65 Machida vs. Rockhold: Beatdown on the Boardwalk
Written by UFC Analyst GambLou
“Down on the boardwalk they’re gettin’ ready for a fight gonna see what them racket boys can do”*
It’s been a couple of UFC cards now that we have underachieved with bottom line results. The UFC holding this event in the ‘Badlands’ of Jersey today which is as close to New York as the organization can get in attempting to get those backward ass legislators off their arse and allow the UFC to offer productions in the Garden state. We trust today is our time to experience ‘Better Days’ and show our Enthusiasts the there’s ‘No Surrender’ in Ol’ Uncle Louie.
UFC 2015: 25-27 +762.00
Means -170 vs. Sullivan +160
Means has looked quite awesome in his last few fights but he has fought guys that want to give him distance and strike with him. We refuse to be ‘Blinded by the Light’ for while Means is one bad hombre on the feet he is also incomplete in tight, against the cage and on the mat. Our belief is that George Sullivan, a local Jersey boy has more than ‘High Hopes’ for this matchup. We feel he’ll grind Means against the cage, take him to the mat to deliver ground & pound and smother the longer striker. Sullivan has what we believe to be the style to cage the dirty bird today. Sullivan opened a fair -115 so without hesitation we’ll take value offered in the current price.
Sullivan +160
Sterling -395 vs. Mizugaki +350
This is a value position solely. Sterling has great skills, superior athleticism, fights out of a top camp and appears to be ‘Easy Money’ in today’s fight. Takeya arrives the more experienced fighter and the larger man who has good power and exceptional take down defense. Sterling opened up -210 and is now -395. Mizugaki is no tomato can and on principle alone we will force the bloated chalk Aljamain Sterling show us he can topple Takeya.
Mizugaki +350(half)
We’ll wait as long as possible for this modest move in order to gab every penny of value from the parlay playing public.
Cummins -120 vs. St. Preux +110
Angelo Dundee would constantly claim that ‘Styles make fights’ and this is our example today. Cummins is a fine talent arriving into this matchup with only a loss to DC in this division. Cummins is a wrestler that will need to take Ovince to the floor and work him ‘Point Blank’. Ovince is the taller, younger longer lefty. Further St. Preux absolutely knows his area of weakness has been in the wrestling/grappling department and he’s been working on his take down D in this camp for he is acutely aware of how Patrick will want to attack him. While we profess the advantages of wrestlers in the Octagon we also have mentioned their main area of improvement/development is often in the stand-up striking department which is the strength of St. Preux. This is going to be a great stylistic matchup but we’ll marry the mangy mongrel here.
St. Preux +110
Dariush -200 vs. Miller +190
Without boasting we have been describing Beneil Darius as a future star in this organization for months. We have also deposited dozens of dollars from this guy’s results but has hype overtaken reality? Darius opened a fair -140 against the ‘Local Hero’ Jim Miller who looked pitiful against the long, lanky cowboy Cerrone in his last out. Dariush’s last few have been against guys that were willing to give him the benefit of distance something we feel Miller will not nor cannot allow. Miller has heard clamoring that his game is ‘Shackled and Drawn’ that he is old and tired entering this fight and that he has lost ‘it’. We feel there is no more motivating factor for an experienced fighter who is feeling a bit desperate than to hear this kind of noise. Miller actually matches up quite well to Dariush in this fight. Miller will be fighting in front of his home area hombres and we feel he will put forth his absolute best effort. All who read us know that when we can count on a top effort we recognize. Miller opened +100 and now we can grab an extra .90 cents? Sign us up.
Miller +190 (half)
Again with dirty dogs we will exercise patience in order to get every nickel of value possible
Rockhold -165 vs. Machida +155
Luke Rockhold was ‘educated’ in world class MMA four bouts ago by Vitor Belfort. This was Rockhold’s PHD in fighting in that he was buying into his own hype train prior to this KO by kick. Immaturity and headlines allowed Rockhold to overlook how incomplete his stand up game was. While he still gives away a slight edge in that department to Machida we feel Rockhold has rounded out his game immensely since that 2013 schooling. Rockhold is much the younger fighter here, he is taller and longer a combination that must be considered. While the guile and grit edge is distributed to the Dragon we must point out that Machida is trying to ‘get back’ while Rockhold is trying to ‘get to’…..something we feel is quite tangible. Machida is a 36 year old fighter and we feel that he is as ripe as a Georgia Peach in this situation. Lyoto is and has been one of the finest MMA fighters in the history of the game but today he has a ticket on a ‘Downbound Train’ for Rockhold is going to show Lyoto the ‘Wrecking Ball’.
We shared our strong feelings regarding Rockhold with many UFC confidants and gaming associates over the last months that this line stagnated at -140. We are vested in that number in aggressive fashion today. We advise a 1 unit play on Rockhold for those reading us this morning based on the pricing available as of this writing.
Rockhold (current pricing)
GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming
*We took a Springsteen theme for today’s fights based on the fact that they are from New Jersey. This is our simple tribute to ‘the Boss’.
