Puck Primer
The NHL playoffs start in earnest this evening and for many of us sports fans it is the greatest post season in all of professional sports. I’m not here to give you keys to the kingdom for postseason riches (there are much better hockey handicappers out there) but can share a few of the key facts, figures, and storylines to make you more informed before investing on ice.
For those wondering who I’m picking to get to the Cup I’ll stand by my selection from the beginning of the year: Tampa wins the East and Chicago Wins the West
Totals Trends
Keep in mind that Game 1 in 7 of the 8 series have a total listed at 5 (albeit with juice attached). Last year Over bettors flourished in Round 1 with 29 Overs, 11 Unders, and 8 pushes. Don’t be surprised if you see totals inch closer to 5.5 rather quickly mainly because of a phenomenon we call the “Roy effect;” the emerging trend of pulling your goalie a lot earlier than hockey purists have grown accustomed to over the years. Here was the full totals breakdown from last year:
Round 1: 29 overs, 11 unders, 8 pushes
Round 2: 10 overs, 13 unders, 4 pushes
Round 3: 8 overs, 3 unders, 2 pushes
Round 4: 1 over, 2 unders, 2 pushes
Total: 48 overs, 29 unders, 16 pushes
Montreal Canadiens (#1 Atlantic) -160 vs Ottawa Senators (#1 Wildcard) +140
Season series: Senators 3-1
Odds to win the Stanley Cup: Canadiens 8-1 Senators 30-1
| Canadiens | Senators | |
| Goals Per Game | 2.6 (20) | 2.8 (9) |
| Goals Against | 2.2 (1) | 2.5 (13) |
| Power Play | 16.5% (23) | 16.8% (22) |
| Penalty Kill | 83.7% (7) | 82.9 (11) |
We all remember major dates in sports…For Senator fans February 18 should not soon be forgotten if it ends up marking an improbable Cup run. No, not because they beat Montreal 4-2 that day but rather because of the man who started between the pipes that fateful evening. Enter Andrew Hammond, a savior of sorts, who stabilized the Sens goaltending situation going 20-1-2 in 23 starts, producing a gaudy 94% save percentage and 1.79 GAA. He’ll be opposed by another formidable netminder for the Habs in this series, the lock for this year’s Vezina trophy Carey Price. The gold medal winning goaltender “only” went 44-16-6 with a 1.96 goals against average in leading Montreal to the division crown this season. While Price is the known commodity for Montreal, what isn’t is the health status of the team’s leading scorer Max Pacioretty who is expected to miss Game 1 of the series. Pacioretty suffered a nasty “upper body injury” a few games ago and his offensive production will be impossible to replace given he’s only 1 of 3 players on the roster that tallied 60 points this season. If he can’t go, Montreal may be hard pressed to put enough pressure on Hammond who turned aside 69 of the 73 shots he faced against Montreal in wins on February 18 and March 12.
The Pick: Pass, Pacioretty’s availability is a game changer and makes this series difficult to handicap. Hard lean towards Ottawa Game 1 if he’s officially ruled out
Washington Capitals (#2 Metropolitan) -130 vs New York Islanders (#3 Metropolitan) +110
Season series: Tied 2-2 (Home team won all 4 meetings)
Odds to win the Stanley Cup: Islanders 25-1 Capitals 20-1
| Capitals | Islanders | |
| Goals Per Game | 2.9 (6) | 3.0 (4) |
| Goals Against | 2.4 (7) | 2.7 (23) |
| Power Play | 25.3% (1) | 18.7% (16) |
| Penalty Kill | 81.2% (14) | 78% (26) |
There isn’t an iron man award for the NHL regular season but if there was Braden Holtby would earn it for playing in 73 Capitals games this year. No, that’s not a typo, 73 which is a hell of a lot of puck for a goalie at this level. We know about the Caps dynamic scoring duo of Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom but the biggest surprise in the nation’s capital this year has been Washington finishing 7th in the league when it comes to goals allowed. If they can continue to focus on assignments in their own end and generate chances on the power play (#1 in the league) they should put pressure on the Isles 26th ranked penalty kill. For Islander fans this playoff run, however long it lasts, will be bittersweet. Why you ask? It will be the end of the Nassau Coliseum before moving to fancy new digs in Brooklyn next season. Maybe they can awake the ghosts of Islander Stanley Cups past but Nystrom, Gillies, Bossy, Trottier, & Potvin ain’t walking through that door. This series feels like a coin flip for me assuming Halak plays well in net for the Isles. The star power is there for New York with Jonathan Tavares (38 goals, 48 assists) leading the charge up front however an injury to defensive stalwart Travis Hamonic could lead to major blue line reshuffling. Hamonic logged the most ice time of any Islanders defensemen at 21:47 a night and will be hard to replace. The Isles have been a nice story this year but this Caps team just feels like the perfect cup dark horse in the east.
The Pick: Capitals in 7
Nashville Predators (#2 Central) +120 vs Chicago Blackhawks (#3 Central) -140
Season series: Tied 2-2 (Home team won all 4 meetings)
Odds to win the Stanley Cup: Blackhawks 8-1 Predators 15-1
| Predators | Blackhawks | |
| Goals Per Game | 2.8 (14) | 2.7 (17) |
| Goals Against | 2.5 (9) | 2.3 (2) |
| Power Play | 16.2% (25) | 17.6% (20) |
| Penalty Kill | 80.8% (18) | 83.4% (10) |
The NHL gets one of its young superstars back just in time for the postseason. Chicago Blackhawks offensive spark plug Patrick Kane returns from a 7 week absence due to a broken collar bone and not a moment too soon. Since the All Star break the Hawks have struggled to score goals, averaging only 2.23 GPG a mark that places them only ahead of the Devils, Sabres, Leafs and Coyotes over that time frame. However as a result of mediocre offensive productivity Chicago has committed to playing much better defense which should come in handy this time of year. On the other side are the Preds, a team with high hopes of making a deep run in Peter Laviolette’s first year behind the bench in Music City. Led by Pekka Rinne between the pipes along with centers Filip Forsberg & Mike Ribiero up front, the Predators limp into the postseason on a 6 game losing skid (Hawks have lost 4 straight). The most alarming stat has been the decline in Rinne’s goals against average, a number that’s more than a half goal higher the second half of the year than over the first half of the season. Nashville is one of the best stories this year and David Poile should be right up there for GM of the year, drafting all six of their starting D-Men in this day and age is remarkable. However all that youth appears to have hit a wall and asking them to suddenly turn things around when it matters most is a tall task. The Hawks live for the postseason and they’ll dispatch Nashville en route to what I think can be another quest for the Stanley Cup.
The Pick: Blackhawks in 6
Vancouver Canucks (#2 Pacific) -140 vs Calgary Flames (#3 Pacific) -140
Season series: Tied 2-2 (Vancouver won first 2, Calgary won the last 2)
Odds to win the Stanley Cup: Canucks 16-1 Flames 30-1
| Canucks | Flames | |
| Goals Per Game | 2.9 (8) | 2.9 (6) |
| Goals Against | 2.7 (19) | 2.6 (16) |
| Power Play | 19.3% (9) | 18.8% (13) |
| Penalty Kill | 85.7% (2) | 80.6% (20) |
Youth was served in Alberta this year…and it wasn’t by the Oilers who have drafted first overall in every draft since 1981 (or so it feels). Calgary came of age quickly; getting outstanding production from some talented youngsters. It’s not often you call a guy only 31 in Jiri Hudler the old man leading the charge but compared to the 20 somethings of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan that’s exactly what he means to this offense in the way of experience. My biggest fear aside from Calgary’s first playoff birth in an eternity and lack of overall postseason experience is the question mark in net where Jonas Hiller has been known to drop to his knees faster than some adult film stars. Speaking of netminders…Vancouver apparently has a minor “controversy” brewing in terms of who will be their starter in Game 1; Miller or Lack? This time of year there’s a lot of cat and mouse publicly regarding key personnel decisions and after reading both player’s quotes I’m led to believe Lack will indeed get the nod. It also suggests that Miller might not be 100% and definitely not ready for playoff intensity after only seeing live action once in the team’s last 23 games. The Canucks penalty kill was virtually air tight to end the season, turning aside 22 of 24 opponent power plays and they’ll need that to be the backbone of their special teams in this series. Calgary plays on emotion and with a great mix of young players; they will give everything they got and could very well pull the upset but…
The Pick: Too close to call, ever so slight lean to the dog but not enough to pull the trigger
