EPL Round 31
After a week off for an international break the EPL gets back into full swing. James Kempton is here with his thoughts on each of the weekend’s fixtures. Game capsules not enough? Listen to Jimmy’s comprehensive podcast with Pete Nordsted
Arsenal v Liverpool
Arsenal -0.5 Goals 2.75
The last ten total meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals so this game should be exciting for the viewer. Interestingly the home side has won just three of the last fifteen EPL meetings. I lean to the away team on this line but with the goal line set at 2.75, I have no real feeling in the totals market.
Everton v Southampton
Pk Goals 2.25
Southampton have conceded just six goals in fifteen games against sides in the bottom of the table. Everton are yet to win this season against teams placed in the top third of the table so even on the Pk I can’t back them here. I prefer the goal markets for value so give me some of the under 2.25 goals here as the Saints will be hard to break down.
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester -0.25 Goals 2.50
I can’t see how this line has Leicester as favourites given West Ham’s win last time out at home to Sunderland. Leicester are desperate but it doesn’t mean they’ll perform in this game. Give me the away team and unders as West Ham have lost just once this season in eleven meetings to bottom third of the table teams.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
United -1.5 Goals 2.75
United have found some form and they’ve covered this line in the last four meetings of the sides at Old Trafford. Villa have managed just seven goals in fifteen games against top half teams so if you want to bet the over you need to be confident United can cover that line without assistance.
Swansea v Hull
Swanse -0.5 Goals 2.25
Swansea have lost only one of fifteen total games against bottom half placed sides as it would appear their ball retention style makes them almost immune to defeat from inferior opposition. Hull have scored just three goals in six away trips to top half teams so give me the home team and under.
West Brom v QPR
WBA -0.75 Goals 2.25
I’m surprised to see this line at -0.75 given the home sides attacking limitations. However, Rangers are poor in this spot as they are 1-0-5 on the road against bottom half sides. They have managed to find the net in four of those six matches though so give me some of the Yes on BTTS as it’s hard to imagine Rangers keeping a clean sheet………ever!
Chelsea v Stoke
Chelsea -1.5 Goals 2.5
Chelsea have shown signs of defensive fragility of late and Stoke’s ability to play a direct style of play could once more cause the Blues issues. Give me Stoke here on the handicap line to stay in sight of the home team and cover.
Burnley v Spurs
Spurs -0.5 Goals 2.5
Spurs have been the overs king of late as their last eleven EPL games have cashed an over 2.5 goals ticket. However, this game sees them visit a Burnley side whose seven games at home to top half teams have seen just a total of twelve goals. With the match line looking confusing as well there is nothing wrong with just passing on this game entirely.
Sunderland v Newcastle
Sunderland -0.25 Goals 2.25
The home team has won just one of the last eight EPL meetings of the sides and that can be attributed to the huge pressure placed on the home team by their fans. I’m sure it will be played in a tense atmosphere and if this line moves to a Pk I will take some of the Sunderland side as their need is greater but at the current line I lean towards Newcastle.
C Palace v Man City
City -0.75 Goals 2.75
Alan Pardew led teams have gained 46 points this season which would be currently good enough for eighth place in the table. Palace have a chance to put a big dent in City’s championship bid. The line is bouncing around so at Palace +0.75 I lean to the away team but at Palace +1 I’d lean to the dog or pass completely.
