Drunken Brainstorm
We’ve all been there before; sitting with our buddies beyond more than a few drinks deep trying to have serious sports debates. Topics start on the greatest teams of all time eventually deteriorating to dialogue about the single worst beat experienced during gambling careers…as if there’s a lifetime achievement award for winning this category. Normally nothing productive comes from the discussion because well the crux of arguments are incoherent and the brainstorms you thought were airtight are anything but airtight the next morning when sobriety sets in. However, I remain steadfast in believing my buddies and I came up with a new way to positively impact NFL season long gambling adding a simple wrinkle to regular season wins: win totals just for divisional games.
Hear me out on this before suggesting I give up drinking in my limited free time (or drink myself smart somehow). We’ve all seen how popular NFL win total betting has become within the last few years. Why not take it one step further adding a win total within the win total for the most important games of the season, especially those fans typically live and die with all fall. Even if your team stinks, those 6 divisional games mean the world for bragging rights and franchise confidence headed into next season. So what if you lose a meaningless inter-conference game against a franchise you play once every 8 years, the only 6 that matter for this win total are those against your fiercest rivals.
We’ve all been there before, dead and buried with a reg season win total that haunts us by week 9. However, this new option potentially keeps you alive or interested all the way through week 17. I cite the Atlanta Falcons as a prime example this past season. Atlanta went 5-1 against teams in the South while compiling a dreadful 1-9 record against everyone else. Their win total opened at 8.5, closed 8 at most books, never creating a realistic chance for over bettors. With the divisional win total most likely having opened in the 4/4.5 range you still could have taken home a winning ticket. I like to think of this new wrinkle on win totals like halftime wagering: get in and get out while you still can thanks to an underlying level of perceived value.
Yes this will take more work from the bookmakers to make sure power numbers are spot on but it’s not additional work than what they’re already doing to prepare for the season. Sharp bettors would be tested on individual match-ups knowing history of each rivalry. Margins for error become slim for both the player and house but why should that deter a new market from being established? Sports gambling always needs innovation; the creative types that put in the hard work are often rewarded through increased market share. While I don’t see this being an instant slam dunk given the fickle nature of sports bettors willingness to adapt I do believe this could create another market piggybacking off win totals business that’s truly surged recently.
The NFL wouldn’t be the only betting market that opens up with this thought as I’d imagine bookmakers could follow suit with other sports in their own timely manner. Will this radically change the face of bookmaking as we know it? Absolutely not…but I didn’t want my drunken escapades to go for naught.
