Take it to the Limit
During the build-up to Superbowl one of the most frequently asked questions by casual bettors is how do sportsbooks determine limits? The short answer is that every betting market is different with limits for each individual sport determined by the risk management team. Large 6 (or even 7) figure wagers that are granted to customers for the Super Bowl aren’t the norm for regular season NBA (or even NFL) games without special arrangements. While working at Caesars we did have a customer that was granted 6 figure limits on NFL regular season games but he was an exception to the norm. The goal of every book is similar to any other business; turning a profit by knowing your customers.
I’ve been mulling a piece like this for a while but was further spurred on by the story that broke over the weekend regarding suspended wagering on the national anthem prop. Originally reported by USA Today, Sportsbook.com saw an unusual flurry of action on their length of the national anthem prop about 45 minutes before Idina Manzel was set to perform. Here’s an excerpt from a conversation I had with their marketing director via email right about the time the prop was pulled:
Yes, around 30 mins ago we took [a number of] bets at the maximum. We took bets from new accounts that only wagered on the over on Anthem, everytime we moved they kept re-betting, so as a precaution we’ve suspended the market
Now it goes without saying that books open each morning for one reason: to make money (a concept lost on twitter a lot of the time). Even with low limit offerings ($50-$200), compromised integrity of a market means books from Costa Rica to Australia would respond the same way by removing a particular wager from the board. Perfect information leaking to the public is the primary fear for book managers handling novelty props and is exactly why the Gaming Control Board her in Nevada staunchly opposes offering bets on anything that isn’t decided on an actual playing field (note my sources have told me the Heisman Trophy and Academy Awards are currently undergoing the auditing process now).
However I’ve digressed to the point you’re left asking how the hell is this at all relevant to betting limits in the greater context…
This is probably an oversimplified generalization that may get me killed by bettors and veteran gamblers alike but think of limits on a particular betting market as an indication of an oddsmaker’s confidence; the larger the bet they’ll except the more they trust their numbers. Entertainment props get $100 maxes while straight bets on the Super Bowl get $100,000 for a reason. The other big reason pro football lends itself to bigger bets is the substantial amount of public money that will be wagered on games unlike what the house sees on a SE Missouri St vs Eastern Illinois college hoops total. When the potential of perfect information entering the market exists books obviously won’t allow huge limit bets. It goes back to a question I was asked throughout the week leading up to the big game about why Bill Belichick just didn’t tell his family members the color of his hoodie to make a few hundred thousand. The answer is simple: no book will allow you to get down a fraction of that amount if some can get this kind of input.
One of the things you’ll learn about this industry is that bettors are always looking to gain an edge over bookmakers by any means possible. The cat and mouse between them is a tradition as old as the Cubs missing the World Series. No matter the size of the market there will be someone out there trying to find an angle worth exploiting for self gain. From the Grammy’s to the Super Bowl, when there’s a number on the board it becomes fair game. We’d all be stupid if we didn’t try to get down at least a few bucks on the length of the national anthem if we had the knowledge some were apparently privy to on Sunday right? Personally I’m just glad those last few notes carried the Star Spangled Banner through the 121 second threshold…so we could hear more of her beautiful anthem rendition.
