Bye Week Disadvantage
Some will argue bye weeks are now more of a detriment to NFL teams than they are a benefit. Yes players have a chance to heal up, rest those nagging injuries but the ATS trends in the modern NFL say time off isn’t actually as good for your bankroll as it once was. What we’ve seen the past few years is teams actually lose steam coming out of a bye week looking more like lethargic sloppy teams than well oiled machines. Not only has this shown to be true in the regular season but it also resonates with postseason results.
Written by Steve Caruso (Visit his website www.twitbet.com)
The logical question then becomes what’s changed?
Look no further than the 2011 CBA. In 2011 as a result of the new CBA rules surrounding bye weeks, player-team commitments have changed. Let’s take a closer look:
Section 2.
Bye Weeks:
During any regular season bye week period occurring during the term of this Agreement, players will be given a minimum of four consecutive days off. Such four day period must include a Saturday and a Sunday unless the Club is scheduled to play a game on the Thursday following the bye week, in which case players may be required to report to the Club on the Sunday preceding the Thursday game. In such an event, the four day period shall be Wednesday through Saturday. Any injured player may be required to undergo medical or rehabilitation treatment during such four day period provided that such treatment is deemed reasonably necessary by the Club’s medical staff.
Click here to view Page 143 of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement
The new set of rules gives players more time off during bye weeks and as a result, less mandatory time is spent doing team activities. As a result less of the player’s diminished work week additional film and practice becomes the casualty.
Unless you have players/coaches with outstanding work ethics, the bye week doesn’t always become an automatic recipe for success. Translation: Only elite level players will do the extra work when not required contractually to work, actually taking advantage of the bye week to gain an edge over their opponent. Even the much heralded Patriots went 5 straight days without practice before returning to work this past Tuesday.
With each team having their bye week and subsequent game in the books this season, fascinating trends emerged since the CBA was changed in 2011. This year specifically we saw teams coming off a bye go 11-20-1 ATS and 12-20 straight up. Historically teams used to win at rates around 55% or higher coming off the bye
Teams off a bye from 2006 – 2010: 87-64-3 ATS (56%)
Teams off a bye from 2011 – 2014: 59-67-2 (48%)
Even the postseason hasn’t yielded great success from an ATS perspective entering the Divisional Round.
Playoff
2006-2010: 10-10 SU & 7-13 ATS…(Brady 3-0, Manning 0-2 ATS)
Since 2011: 9-3 SU & 5-7 ATS (minus the Superbowl where both teams are off a bye)
Times change; you can’t ride trends forever. The important thing is to get out ahead of change and adapt early. Journalist and best selling author Malcolm Gladwell once coined the term “disadvantages are often advantageous”. With the new collective bargaining agreement reached in 2011 the tables were turned on a historically great spot. However NFL team’s disadvantages can still be used to our gambling benefit.
What was once a great spot to play on just gives us another reason to fade.
