Round 18
One of the greatest tradition in international sport is a full slate of EPL games on Boxing Day. What better way to bring in the holiday than with our UK Insider James Kempton for game capsules on every fixture. You can listen to his podcast here
Chelsea v West Ham United
Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals
The Hammers have not scored in the last three meetings of the teams but they are currently in great form. Jose will want revenge for last years goalless draw where he accused West Ham of dour tactics. I see Chelsea winning this game but can’t trust them to cover the handicap line and the goal line also looks a tricky proposition. Pass for me here.
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.5 goals
A rousing performance and finale at the weekend by the Reds should see them priced shorter than they should be come kick off. Who can trust this lightweight Liverpool team on the road against a team of fighters like Burnley? Not me for sure as it’s the home dog or pass but I do sense the line trending towards 0.75 by gameday so dog bettors may be best served to wait it out.
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Palace were passed to death by City at the weekend and it’s not set to get much easier here. Southampton won both meetings of the sides to nil last season and this season they seem even better defensively. At the weekend the Saints comfortably beat Everton and I do not see them losing this game. Holiday games do bring a special atmosphere to grounds so I won’t be taking Palace on but the over 2.25 goals do offer some appeal to me.
Everton v Stoke City
Everton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Damn those books and their research as I was hoping this goal line would be set at 2.5 goals and we could pound the under. Under 2.5 goals has gone 9-1 in the last ten meetings of the teams with the one aberration being the 4-0 home win for the Toffees last season. Everton have recorded only a single victory by more than one goal in the twelve total EPL matchups of the sides. Given the recent form of the sides everything points to the Potters here on the handicap line so let’s dive in on the dog.
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.5 and 2.5 goals
In the bleak mid winter Leicester need a positive result quickly following their loss at West Ham. Spurs won at the weekend and they do play better away from White Hart Lane. Nothing we have seen of late is pointing to the home team but it’s Christmas and miracles happen at this time of year. I have a gut feel that Leicester will find a way to get the job done and not only cover the handicap but win outright.
Manchester United v Newcastle United
Man Utd -1.25 and 3 goals
I love the Red United in this spot despite Newcastle winning at Old Trafford last season. That last minute goal last Sunday will have sucked some of the life out of Newcastle and in truth they offer minimal attacking threat. Wave and wave of red attacks should engulf the Black & Whites so give me the home team on the handicap line.
Sunderland v Hull City
Sunderland -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Hull recorded a double last season when the sides met including a 2-0 win at the Stadium of Light. Of late though the teams are on opposite trajectories as Sunderland seem to be improving whilst Hull are falling like a brick. The only play here is to back the home team, well if you can stomach laying half a goal with them that is.
Swansea City v Aston Villa
Swansea -0.75 and 2.25 goals
The Swans won this game 4-1 last season and the previous campaign saw a 2-2 draw in Wales. There have been at least two goals in each of the last five EPL meetings of the teams and Villa remain dangerous on the break. I really like the over 2.25 goals in this game as the risk/reward ratio seems highly stacked in our favour.
West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City
Man City -1 and 2.5 goals
City have scored thirteen goals in the last five meetings of the sides and netted three times in each game last season. Despite the lack of an out and out striker the blues will still have enough creativity to take all three points. With games coming thick and fast over the festive period do not bank on the overs cashing as City may take their foot off the gas. 2-0 away win anyone?
Arsenal v Queens Park Rangers
Arsenal -1.75 and 3.25 goals
The only things you need to know here is that Arsenal are excellent at home against the lower placed teams whilst QPR are dreadful on the road, against everyone! The only play you should consider making is on the home team but at 3.25 that goal line is very steep so we will pass on that one.
