Round 17
The holiday gift that keeps on giving; James Kempton is back with his complete analysis for the pre Boxing day fixtures from across the pond. Remember you can always catch his weekly EPL podcast by clicking here as well.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace
Manchester City -1.5 and 2.75 goals
City smell blood in the water and with Chelsea having a tricky road game at Stoke, they could pull even closer to the top of the table by the close of business. This is a game where I do not see anything other than a home win so even with a handicap of -1.5 I see a comfortable cover.
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Villa were unlucky last week when they played seventy minutes of their derby game at West Brom with just ten men. They lost narrowly 1-0 and their luck appears out as next up they host this red hot United side. A tighter defensive line for United in recent games makes me more likely to side with them here, especially as the line has ticked down from -1 to just -0.75 on the Reds.
Hull City v Swansea City
Hull City +0.25 and 2.25 goals
Hull are in freefall and they need a win quickly to restore some belief in the squad as they enter this heavy festive period. The Swans lost late against Spurs last weekend and they are a much different side away from Wales. Having said that, in Wilfred
Bony they have a genuine goal threat who could strike at any minute whereas the home side have very little offensive punch. If the line shifts to a Pick (which it may do come gameday) then I like the Swans and I also lean to the under.
Queens Park Rangers v West Bromwich Albion
QPR -0.25 and 2.25 goals
West Brom gained a much needed win last weekend over local rivals Aston Villa albeit assisted by some dodgy refereeing decisions. I like the home team here with Charlie Austin returning from suspension against a Baggies side who seem in freefall unless aided by officials. Overs would be my total side if pinned down!
Southampton v Everton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
I was praying for Everton to spank QPR on Monday night as I am desperate to get the best price on the home team here. It’s complete tosh that they’re in a downturn as even in last weeks defeat at Burnley they missed a penalty at 0-0. Give me the home side here as some good value to get back to winning ways. The overs intrigues me as I do not see this Toffees team keeping a clean sheet on the road and an early goal will throw this game wide open.
Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley
Spurs -1 and 2.75 goals
Spurs are back after that win last Sunday against Swansea. They’re back on home soil this weekend where they are a vastly different outfit. Burnley moved out of the relegation zone with that great 1-0 home victory over Southampton and anyone who thinks they will simply roll over here are mad. The line initially opened Spurs -1.25 and I like the dog but at this line I will swerve the match line. Unders is my lean as although they may get the job done eventually, Spurs’ struggles at White Hart Lane may continue.
West Ham United v Leicester City
West Ham -0.75 and 2.75 goals
What Sam Allardyce has done at West Ham has been masterful. Games where last season they would have resulted in loss, like Sunderland last Saturday, they now draw and draws turn into victories. I’m beginning to think all hope is already gone for Leicester and its a massive ten days of holiday football coming up for them. At the current lines I lean heavily towards the under 2.75 goals as my favoured bet here.
Newcastle v Sunderland
Newcastle -0.5 and 2.25 goals
This is one of the fiercest rivalries in the world. I won’t say it’s borderline hatred. It is hatred. Throw the form book out the window and sometimes it is easier for an away team in such spots as the ferocity of the crowd binds the road team together. I will take a slice of Sunderland to avoid defeat in the cauldron that is St James Park on derby day. Going high on booking markets and Yes on a sending off also offers interest.
Liverpool v Arsenal
PK and 2.5 goals
How can anyone back Liverpool? Those wanting to and clinging to the past can point to their performances against elite sides in big games under lights at Anfield. History is history though and it won’t help Liverpool score any goals this Sunday. A lot of value on the Pick Em line with Arsenal as despite their injuries they have far more attacking threat than this one paced sluggish Liverpool side.
Stoke City v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
A night in Stoke three days before Christmas is not on many peoples wish lists. The Brittania Stadium is not as much of a fortress these days as it has been historically. However, in certain spots the crowd still plays a big part and any time Jose Mourinho struts up and down the touch line then this crowd will be into the game. Give me the home dog to provide some last minute Christmas spending money!
