It’s Time
Lights. Camera. #MACtion. We were teased with a couple weeks of Tuesday night Sun Belt (or Fun Belt if you happened to be a ULL Ragin’Cajun’backer) but the real degenerate Holy Grail returns this week. The week day MAC games started with four games over Tuesday and Wednesday night this week. I imagine this is what it’s like when somebody going through withdrawals finally gets their fix. But as hardened #MACtion vets know, betting these weekday tilts are not for the faint of heart. Throw out everything you’ve ever learned betting on college football over the years, none of those rules apply. Luckily for you guys I’m here to provide you with everything you need to know about betting weekday MAC games.
(Note: While I hold these #MACtion truths to be self evident, you may want to take this guide with a grain of salt when doing your research for these games).
There will be weather. It must be something about the way the winds swirl off of Lake Erie into MAC country this time of year but for some reason it seems like every MAC game is played in some sort of less than desirable weather condition. It may be raining, it may be snowing, it may be freezing or incredibly windy. Never, EVER assume a weekday MAC game will be played in good conditions. Normally most people would tend to take the under if bad weather is in play, the problem is that’s not the way #MACtion works. Last year o/u’s were 6-6 in weekday MAC games regardless of mother nature.
There will be missed extra points and field goals. No kick is guaranteed in these games. It doesn’t matter if it’s an extra point or a 30 yard field goal. You can’t assume anything in the kicking game. There were 11 MAC kickers last year with a FG percentage of 70% or less. Some of those were the back up kickers but of course back up kickers will end up playing during weekday #MACtion. That’s just how these games go. This probably ties into my next point…
Fake punts and fake field goals will happen. I can’t give you hard empirical evidence of this but this is absolutely the case. I think we’re now at the point that fake field goals and punts are attempted more often than actual punts or field goals. Special teams in weekday #MACtion mirror that of your 2-7 local high school team’s special teams.
There will be (many) turnovers. Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Good news for all of us bettors is that it will happen to both teams. Granted this just adds to the argument that you might as well go play red or black on the roulette wheel instead of betting weekday MAC games but that’s not an option for us #MACtion junkies. I ran through last year’s box scores and in 11 weekday MAC games there were a total of 30 turnovers. Just a hair under 3 per game. Turnovers then lead to…
Fat guy touchdowns. Unfortunately there is no national database recording fat guy touchdowns but based on anecdotal evidence I can tell you they happen during #MACtion more than any other time or place. However, this may be one area where bettors have an advantage over lines makers. If we know there’s inherently a higher chance of a fat guy touchdown during one of these games we can factor that into the line where the guys making them most likely didn’t.
There won’t be big crowds. Don’t expect crowd noise to ever be a factor in these games. I’m not saying these schools have bad fan bases but the games are in the middle of the week and as I previously mentioned the weather will always be bad. Don’t expect any home field advantage to come into play. You will however get shots of fans in the crowd with their own personal bottles of Fireball.
#MACtion is never over until the clock hits 0:00. My favorite weekday MAC game of last season resulted in what will forever been known as the double #MACdoorcover (credit to Adam Kramer for that hashtag). The game featured N. Illinois favored by anywhere from -7 to -9.5 over Ball State with an o/u of 73. With N. Illionis up 34-27 and only 1:30 on the clock, instead of kneeling the game out Jordan Lynch ran for a 16 yard touchdown to put the Huskies up 14. Ball State backers get front doored. But under bettors are still ok. That is until after the ensuing kick off Ball State came out on their first play and threw a 50 yard pick-6 with only 55 seconds left. 48-27 final. N. Illinois covers and the over hits when both were dead in the water with 1:30 to play. The double #MACdoorcover was thus created. It truly is never over until it’s over when it comes to #MACtion.
Enjoy your weekday MAC bets but remember that literally ANYTHING can happen in these games.
