EPL Notes
All notes courtesy of James Kempton
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Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Man City -1.25 and Goal Line of 3
City have conceded in all but two of their EPL games this season so Spurs should have hope they can find the net here. The last six meetings of the teams have all gone over 2.5 goals with only one of those resulting in a Push. City are a far better side than Spurs and I’d take them on the handicap line but will avoid the goals market.
Arsenal v Hull City
Arsenal -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75
Arsenal have won five straight meetings of the sides but only one of the six EPL meetings since September 2008 has seen four or more goals. With Arsenal once again ravaged with injuries I will settle for an unders ticket here as they look to grind out a solid but not spectacular victory.
Burnley v West Ham United
Pick Em Line and Goal Line of 2.25
Sometimes teams find it difficult to throw off past reputations and I sense West Ham are one such side. They play in a more open and attacking manner than in previous seasons under ‘Big Sam’. Over 2.5 goals is 5-2 in Hammers games and another one saw two goals so I will take the overs trend to continue in this one. It’s too early in the season to be blindlu opposing Burnley on these lines against non elite opposition but the time may not be far away!
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Chelsea -1.25 and Goal Line of 2.75
Palace scored in both meetings of the sides last season as they won this meeting at Selhurst Park 1-0 thanks to a John Terry own goal. I always struggle to take a Mourinho side away from home on this line. The only way I could do it with any confidence is if I thought they’d win to nil. Last seasons results tell me that Palace may notch in this game so this is one to stay away from.
Everton v Aston Villa
Everton -1 and Goal Line of 2.75
Everton have started slowly this season and this is a game they and their home support will expect to win. History is against them covering this handicap line though as in the EPL since November 2006 on a Everton -1 line there would have been 13 Villa wins, 2 Everton wins and a Push. Villa score goals away from home and Everton have a leaky backline. Give me Villa +1
Newcastle United v Leicester City
Newcastle -0.25 and Goal Line of 2.5
The cloud of uncertainty over St James’ Park effectively stops this line from being Newcastle -0.5 as this is what they are usually priced at in such sports. Leicester struggle to keep a clean sheet but they do have attacking threats at the other end in big Leonardo Ulloa who will trouble the home defense. All the value here is with Leicester Straight Up.
Southampton v Sunderland
Southampton -1 and Goal Line of 2.5
Last time here in my column I praised the resoluteness of Sunderland this season despite not having a registered a win at that point. They rewarded us with a victory in that game and here they get a full goal on the road in Southampton. Last time out at home Southampton only squeaked out a 2-1 win over an awful QPR team. I will take the away team here plus a full goal.
QPR v Liverpool
Liverpool -1 and Goal Line of 2.75
The last two EPL meetings at Loftus Road have seen 3 and 5 goals respectively. Liverpool will score as QPR are woeful keeping the ball out of their net. Who can really trust Liverpool to keep a clean sheet? So there’s two goals for a start and we then only need another one to cash an overs ticket on the goal line. Over 2.75 goals.
Stoke City v Swansea City
Stoke -0.25 and Goal Line of 2.25
The sides have met six times in the EPL and each of them has seen at least two goals scored. With a goal line set at just 2.25 you’d expect the play is to go with the over but four of those games saw exactly two goals scored. In view of that I can’t touch the goal line line and turn our attention to the handicap. Four home wins and two draws suggests all the value is with the home team. Swansea are now four EPL games without a win and have won just six of their last twenty away games. Stoke -0.25 for me.
West Bromwich Albion v Manchester United
Man Utd -0.75 and Goal Line of 2.75
United can’t defend but they can certainly attack with striking power at their disposal. The lively Saido Berahino will certainly cause United’s defense problems and it wouldn’t surprise me if he netted in this game. The last four EPL outings for United have gone over 2.5 goals and until I see this Van Gaal cash an under ticket I will ride the overs in their games! The handicap line looks a trap line to me, stay away from it.
