Make-up of a Champion
NHL futures discussion is best served with a cold glass of beer, preferably something Canadian.
The temperature is dropping, the leaves are beginning to change and any remnants of a Canadian summer are beginning to vanish. Soon the tide of snow and cold will cross the border, creeping down into the U.S. bringing with it the NHL and a new season of gambling opportunities.
It’s time to get ready for that song and dance,
Let’s go my friends it’s time to take a chance,
We’re back in town, it’s time to get it done,
We got nowhere to hide, nowhere to run,
It’s been a long time coming,
It’s been a long time coming…
The Boys are Back- Dropkick Murphys
Training camps are done and the regular season is upon us. Over the past few years, the NHL, like the NBA, has seen a drastic influx of talent go out west, leading to two very uneven conferences. However, the NHL is a much more wide open league- 9 different NHL teams have won the cup in the past 11 seasons while 9 different NBA teams have won the championship in the past 35 seasons. So, how then do you differentiate these NHL teams and pick your future?
3 Criteria to look for
a) Choose your conference
b) Will the team make the playoffs?
c) Can that team make a deep enough run in the postseason to give you enough value?
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| WESTERN CONFERENCE (Division) | 2015 ODDS | 2014 ODDS | O/u Team Points | EASTERN CONFERENCE (Division) | 2015 ODDS | 2014 ODDS | O/u Team Points |
| CHI Blackhawks (C) | 6/1 | 6/1 | 107.5 | BOS Bruins (A) | 8/1 | 9/1 | 107.5 |
| L.A. Kings (P) | 7.5/1 | 16/1 | 102.5 | PIT Penguins (M) | 10/1 | 5/1 | 106.5 |
| STL. Blues (C) | 9/1 | 8/1 | 104.5 | NY Rangers (M) | 14/1 | 20/1 | 95.5 |
| ANA Ducks (P) | 9/1 | 20/1 | 104.5 | MTL Canadiens (A) | 16/1 | 20/1 | 97.5 |
| SJ Sharks (P) | 14/1 | 16/1 | 101.5 | TB Lightning (A) | 16/1 | 40/1 | 100.5 |
| COL Avalanche (C) | 16/1 | 50/1 | 94.5 | DET Red Wings (A) | 25/1 | 10/1 | 98.5 |
| MIN Wild (C) | 16/1 | 40/1 | 101.5 | CLB Blue Jackets (M) | 28/1 | 40/1 | 94.5 |
| DAL Stars (C) | 25/1 | 50/1 | 98.5 | PHL Flyers (M) | 30/1 | 40/1 | 88.5 |
| VAN Canucks (P) | 28/1 | 12/1 | 88.5 | TOR Maple Leafs (A) | 33/1 | 30/1 | 88.5 |
| ARZ Coyotes (P) | 50/1 | 60/1 | 87.5 | WAS Capitals (M) | 40/1 | 30/1 | 92.5 |
| WIN Jets (C) | 66/1 | 40/1 | 81.5 | NJ Devils (M) | 50/1 | 40/1 | 86.5 |
| NSH Predators (C) | 80/1 | 50/1 | 89.5 | OTT Senators (A) | 50/1 | 30/1 | 86.5 |
| CAL Flames (P) | 100/1 | 100/1 | 70.5 | CAR Hurricanes (M) | 80/1 | 40/1 | 78.5 |
| EDM Oilers (P) | 100/1 | 30/1 | 80.5 | NY Islanders (M) | 100/1 | 30/1 | 88.5 |
| FLA Panthers (A) | 100/1 | 100/1 | 83.5 | ||||
| BUF Sabres (A) | 150/1 | 100/1 | 63.5 |
Step 1- Choosing a Conference
The odds to win the Stanley Cup give a short overview of the difference between the two conferences: 6 of the top 9 teams are from the western conference and 9 of the top 15. This means a team that didn’t make the playoffs from the west would be favored over two teams in the playoffs from the east, at least in theory.
Rather than try to validate a decision to pick one of the nine powerful teams in the west to run the playoff gauntlet, we’ll look to the much more wide open Eastern Conference for a suitable future
Step 2- Choose a team that will make the playoffs
Over the past 9 seasons the average points required to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference has been 92.3 with a high of 94 and a low of 88. For simplicity, we’ll assume that the threshold to make the playoffs this year will be 92 points. Using the Westgate Hotel’s over/unders for team points, we’ll eliminate Buffalo, Florida, and Carolina from the playoff picture as they have an O/u set at least 8.5 points below the required 92. Even if one of these three teams makes the playoffs, it would be unlikely for them to advance far enough to give us a good enough bang for the buck. That leaves 13 teams to fight over the 8 playoff spots, all of which have a chance to make the postseason.
Step 3- Choose a team that can make a deep playoff run
The playoffs are always tricky as leapfrogging from round to round depends more on matchups than just overall team strength, but we’ll break it down using what we do know.
1) Since 2007, only one team (out of 16 teams) has made the Stanley Cup finals after missing the playoffs the prior year (New Jersey in 2012). Additionally only 4 teams (out of 16 teams) have made the Eastern Conference Finals after missing the playoffs the previous year (Philadelphia 2008, Carolina 2009, Tampa Bay 2011, & New Jersey 2012). This trend eliminates Ottawa, New Jersey, New York Islanders, Washington, and Toronto from the list. Let’s be honest though, the Leafs are eliminated long before puck even drops on opening night.
2) Only two teams (out of 24 teams) since 2002 have made back-to-back trips to the Stanley Cup finals (Pittsburgh and Detroit both in 2008 & 2009). Also, only two teams (out of 16) since 2006 have made back-to-back trips to the Eastern Conference Finals (Pittsburgh in 2008 & 2009 and Buffalo in 2006 & 2007). This trend eliminates the New York Rangers.
3) Out of 18 teams, only one team (New Jersey in 2012) in the past 9 years made the Eastern Conference Finals after its team points had declined consecutively in the two years prior. This would eliminate Detroit whose points have declined consecutively in the past 3 years but I won’t officially write the Wings off for dead just yet.
The above parameters focus on eliminating teams that haven’t shown the skill or ability to compete at a high level (Buffalo, Florida, Carolina, Ottawa, New Jersey, New York Islanders, Washington, and Toronto), teams that have a target on their back (New York Rangers), and teams that are in decline (Detroit).
That leaves:
Boston (8/1), Pittsburgh (10/1), Montreal (16/1), Tampa Bay (16/1), Columbus (28/1), and Philadelphia (30/1).
These 6 teams all fit the mold of the majority of the past Eastern Conference finalists; however, they each have their own strengths and weaknesses that they will have to overcome throughout the 82 game, regular season and into the playoffs. With odds ranging from 8/1 to 30/1, it will be up to you on who you wish to back this upcoming season.
