Week 4 Post Mortem
It’s easy to get caught up in the energy of a game day, hell that’s what most of us live for all fall. The homework’s been done; hours spent on conference calls, stats, and exploring angles is in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately active involvement doesn’t just stop when a game goes final with a win or a loss.
Over the years I’ve found myself spending more time combing through play by play for games recently completed to effectively “grade” my wagers. It’s hard to ignore just the wins and losses but the real merits of a good wager goes deeper. Football season is a marathon, not a sprint and the most dangerous outcome for all of us is to ignore what we’ve seen and learn from it.
As a recurring weekly feature my goal is to take you through my weekly thought process, grading my 5 “public” selections for the week that I’ve elected to use in the supercontest.
Typically the criteria I use to grade each play will come from a combination of factors including beating the closing line, winning the box score, staying inside (or outside as a fav) the number for the majority of the game, and identifying intangibles not built into the line. Don’t worry, I’ll explain more as we dive into the exercise.
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Contest line: Bills +3
Did the play beat closing line? Yes I took +3 whereas the game closed +2.5. However the best number available in the market was actually Buffalo +4 earlier in the week.
Did the Bills win the box score? I wouldn’t say either team won the box score Sunday with stats that pretty much mirrored each other. Buffalo netted +1 in the turnover department, which normally means good things. Unfortunately the single biggest play in the game went the way of the Texans; JJ Watt’s 80 yard pick 6 to turn a sure fire Bills’ scoring drive into 7 the other way.
Did the Bills stay inside the number all game? No, Buffalo had a chance to extend their thin lead after picking off Ryan Fitzpatrick early in the third but promptly gave the ball away. From that point forward it was an uphill battle in regards to the number aside from trimming the score to 20-17 after a Mike Williams 80 yard TD reception.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? No. Both teams came into the game off a loss and pretty lethargic efforts to boot the week prior. There was no angle to be exploited regarding market inefficiency.
Final grade: C…Result, Loss
Final comments: This game could have gone either way. Yes the Bills built a 10-0 lead but to sit here and say they were the better team for the majority of the game wouldn’t be a fair assessment. Finding 50/50 propositions is what the NFL is all about however as bettors our goal is to avoid coin flips.
Contest line: Jaguars +12.5
Did the Jaguars play beat closing line? Yes, game ended up closing +11 at most sharper outfits.
Did the Jaguars win the box score? No, San Diego out gained and out played the Jaguars from the start. Despite trailing 14-10 at one point, the Chargers were the better team for 60 minutes.
Did the Jaguars stay inside the number all game? No, the Jaguars fell outside the number for the first time early in the 4th quarter. It was just a matter of time before San Diego found some offensive rhythm even if it meant settling for field goals a majority of the game keeping the final score closer than what it could have been.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Kind of…San Diego had been dogged in their first 3 games of the year (all covers) and came home as a double digit favorite against an undervalued Jags side. The week before the line here would have been 9.5 so 13 offered upside. However a rookie QB making his first start in hostile territory is rarely a recipe for success and the Jags were unable to sneak in the backdoor.
Final Grade: D+…Result, Loss
Final Note: Beating the close is only part of the battle…going to a gun fight with a knife isn’t a good recipe for success.
Contest line: 49ers -5.5
Did I beat closing line? No, I was forced to lay -5.5 for a game that eventually closed -3.5. Again, I was stubborn with a price I made higher than the market but I did myself no favors when inevitably the game fell on a “dead number” of 5 at 26-21.
Did the 49ers win the box score? By an absolute landslide. Philadelphia scored 21 points in the first half despite not running a single offensive play on the 49ers end of the field. There was also a point deep into the 4th where San Francisco had out first downed the visitors 20-5.
Did the 49ers stay outside the number all game? Despite their dominance they continued to settle for field goals and never led by more than 5. If my grandpa didn’t have testicles he’d have been my grandma…the “if” game in this business doesn’t work. When you lay points with a favorite of more than a field goal you better hope they can execute in the red zone. Jets vs Bears anyone???
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Absolutely. Eagles were as flat as could be for their trip out west while the 49ers knew the magnitude of getting back to .500. If it wasn’t for big special teams or defensive scores the Eagles get run out of the building…but again, that didn’t happen.
Final Grade: B…Result, Loss
Contest line: Vikings +3
Did I beat closing line? No but I had a feeling I wouldn’t be able to given the tremendous public support for Atlanta in this spot. There was sharp money that came in on Atlanta at soft 3 and -3, pushing the price as high as +6 before kickoff.
Did the Vikings win the box score? Welcome to the show Teddy Bridgewater. He led the Vikings balanced attack to over 500 yards of offensive output with outstanding balance.
Did the Vikings stay inside the number all game? Yes. Minnesota got out to an early lead and covered box to wire. They did go down 28-27 towards the end of the 3rd quarter but promptly answered the deficit with a scoring drive of their own only a few short minutes later.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Atlanta entered off a blowout on Thursday the previous week and had to take their show away from the friendly confines of the Georgia dome. Simple mantra in the Not for Long league is buy low and sell high…it worked to perfection at TFC Bank Stadium on Sunday.
Final Grade: A-…Result, Win
Final Note: I can’t give myself an A because I didn’t achieve maximum closing line value. However I knew that I wouldn’t be able to grab the best of it given the contest number and knowing I made the Vikes -1 in this spot meant I had to jump in anyways.
Contest line: Chiefs +3.5
Did I beat closing line? You bet your ass…the game dipped as low as +2.5 with a barrage of sharp money before the late public rush combined with middlers allowed this price to settle +3 (-120)
Did the Chiefs win the box score? It wasn’t close. KC did whatever they wanted when they wanted…I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about my U8.5 wins given that offensive dominance. Travis Kelce, Jamal Charles, and Knile Davis were a 3-headed monster the Patriots had no answer for on the evening.
Did the Chiefs stay outside the number all game? Box to wire, no need to rehash this.
Did the situation set up an intangible handicapping angle? Yes; KC at home in primetime as a dog against a team with 2 brand new starters on the o-line made the dog live. The Patriots rarely look ill prepared but that’s exactly the feeling I had watching them fold under the KC pressure on both sides of the ball.
Final Grade: A…Result, Win
