EPL Round 6
Futbol Friday is back! Our soccer insider is here to share his insight for every fixture on this weekend’s EPL slate. Make sure to follow James Kempton on twitter and listen to his podcast here.
Liverpool v Everton
Liverpool -0.5
Goals 3
Everton has not won a derby game at Anfield since the turn of the millennium and with a defense that looks like a sieve, it is a big ask for them to win this game. Couple that with the fact the Toffees have only scored three goals in their last eight EPL trips across Stanley Park and you see how unlikely such a win is. However, all is not rosey in Liverpool’s garden after that poor showing on the road last time out against West Ham. Having said that give me the home side to have more defensive discipline than their visitors and take this game on the -0.5 line.
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Chelsea -1.75
Goals 3
Chelsea have scored twenty one goals in their last five home EPL meetings with Villa. The visitors have managed to score eight in reply though so this could be a high scoring encounter at Stamford Bridge. In fact Villa have found the back of the net in six of their last seven meetings with Chelsea and not many EPL sides can say that. Give me the overs here as I sense Villa will score again but Chelsea will prevail in the end.
Crystal Palace v Leicester
Pick Em Line
Goals 2.25
Both teams had surprise wins last time out as they out scored two EPL giants in shoot outs. Palace won 3-2 away to Everton whilst Leicester came from 3-1 back to humiliate Manchester United 5-3. After such confidence boosting and high scoring wins you may think this game could be filled with goals. However, just like unfancied boxers who shock a higher ranked opponent I see these sides reverting to a more cautious style and trying to win on points! I like the unders here on the goal line.
Hull City v Manchester City
Hull +1
Goals 2.5
Six EPL meetings of the sides since Novermber 2008 and Manchester City have scored in every game, racking up thirteen total goals. Only once though have the City in blue scored more than twice in a game. Last season they kept two clean sheets against the Tigers. I will take the away side here to get the job done and if you think they will win then it’s likely they score twice so swallow that full goal.
Manchester United v West Ham United
Man United -1.5
Goals 3
Doom and gloom has once again descended over Old Trafford following that humiliating 5-3 defeat away at Leicester last Sunday. The Red Devils have won six straight games against West Ham at home and have covered a -1.5 line in five of those six games. West Ham come into this game on the back of that confidence boosting 3-1 win over Liverpool and they are a dangerous underdog here. Goals are the way I want to play this game though and it could explode with them as West Ham have nothing to fear. I see a push as your worse case scenario on a goal line of three 3 so grab it now as it may tick up to 3.25 on gameday.
Southampton v QPR
Southampton -1.25
Goals 2.5
Southampton are a good side and last time out at home they hammered Newcastle 4-0. They play with a pace and vibrancy that I am not sure this QPR team can handle. The dinosaurs at QPR should have lost last time out at home to Stoke but managed to sneak a 2-2 draw. All Harry Redknapp needs to do is to sign Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe this January and he can complete his Back to the Future line up. Southampton straight up here for me but that -1.25 line is just a bit too steep to lay for a non elite side.
Sunderland v Swansea City
Pick Em
Goals 2.25
Sunderland have won just one of the six EPL meetings of the sides since August 2011. Both of last seasons matchups between the sides saw four goals hit the back of the net and no fewer than seven of those were for Swansea as they completed the double. The Swans are a dangerous side playing on the break so you would think trips away from Wales should suit them. However, they have won just eleven of their last forty EPL away games so on a Pick Em line then any value looks to be with the home side. With the goal line set at 2.25 if you want to bet this game then an overs ticket looks to offer the most suitable approach.
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal -0.75
Goals 2.75
This is the biggest game of this weekend’s EPL card. Arsenal won both fixtures last season 1-0 and only one of the last ten matches resulted in a draw. Arsenal have won the last three meetings at The Emirates and they definitely come into this game in the better form of the two North London rivals. This will either explode with goals or be a damp squib. Before those meetings last season, eight straight EPL meetings had seen at least three goals scored. I’m not convinced about this Spurs side so I’d lean towards the home win on the -0.75 line.
West Bromwich Albion v Burnley
West Brom -0.5
Goals 2.25
What a dull game. Sorry folks as some games you just cannot build up. West Brom desperately need a home win anyway they can get one. Burnley have shored things up defensively of late. Just because this game is the main Sunday game it does not mean you have to bet it. Any leans I have are definitely with the away side to grab at least a point and the under 2.25 goal line.
Stoke City v Newcastle United
Stoke -0.25
Goals 2.25
Stoke have won three of the last four meetings of the sides at the Britannia Stadium and last season defeated Newcastle 1-0 in April. That was only the second fixture of the ten EPL meetings of the sides that has seen an under 2.5 goal ticket cash, overs are 8-2. Only one of those meetings has seen Newcastle keep a clean sheet and can you see this Newcastle backline keeping it clean in this game? Me neither so take a over 2.25 goal ticket to finish your weekend off nicely!
